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How Important are Commodity Terms of Trade Shocks in Explaining Government Tax Revenue Fluctuations? Evidence from Ethiopia

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  • Naser Yenus Nuru

Abstract

Using a new database of commodity terms of trade and identifying country-specific commodity export and import price shocks separately, this article mainly aims to examine the importance of commodity export and import price shocks in explaining government tax revenue fluctuations using Ethiopia as an example over the sample period 1980–2019. This article employs a structural vector autoregressive model and forecast error variance decomposition analysis to address this objective. The results show that commodity export and import price shocks account for around 48% of government tax revenue fluctuations. While commodity export price shocks contribute to around 37% of fluctuations in government tax revenue, commodity import price shocks account for only 11% of government tax revenue fluctuations. These findings are discussed in terms of their policy implications. JEL Classification C32, F41, F44

Suggested Citation

  • Naser Yenus Nuru, 2025. "How Important are Commodity Terms of Trade Shocks in Explaining Government Tax Revenue Fluctuations? Evidence from Ethiopia," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 17(1), pages 137-152, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:17:y:2025:i:1:p:137-152
    DOI: 10.1177/09749101241276394
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    Keywords

    Commodity terms of trade; government tax revenue; structural vector autoregressive; forecast error variance decomposition; Ethiopia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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