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EU-sentiment predicts the 2016 Dutch referendum vote on the EU’s association with Ukraine better than concerns about Russia or national discontent

Author

Listed:
  • Koen Abts
  • Tom Etienne
  • Yordan Kutiyski
  • André Krouwel

Abstract

This article utilises large-N panel data to compare two theories of referendum voting behaviour in order to understand the ‘for’ or ‘against’ vote in the 2016 Dutch referendum on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. It studies the extent to which voting behaviour was predicted by Eurosceptic attitudes and fear of upsetting Russia (issue-based theory), versus dissatisfaction with the Dutch government and general political discontent (second-order theory). Our findings indicate that issue-based determinants predict the referendum vote better than second-order predictors. However, Eurosceptic attitudes and government satisfaction both outperform concerns about the relationship with Russia as a predictor. We thus provide evidence that the issue-based and second-order approaches to explain voting in EU referendums are complementary, but not equal in explanatory strength.

Suggested Citation

  • Koen Abts & Tom Etienne & Yordan Kutiyski & André Krouwel, 2023. "EU-sentiment predicts the 2016 Dutch referendum vote on the EU’s association with Ukraine better than concerns about Russia or national discontent," European Union Politics, , vol. 24(3), pages 494-515, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:24:y:2023:i:3:p:494-515
    DOI: 10.1177/14651165231157612
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