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Citizens’ support for the European Union and participation in European Parliament elections

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  • Daniel Stockemer

Abstract

The dominant paradigm characterizes European Parliament (EP) elections as second-order national elections. Scholars adhering to this view (for example, Marsh, 2008 ; Reif and Schmitt, 1980 ; Schmitt, 2005 ) not only identify these elections as less important, but also emphasize that low turnout in EP elections is unrelated to citizens’ support for the European Union (EU). In this article, I challenge this latter proposition. Analyzing all EP elections since 1979, I first find that higher macro-level support for EU membership leads to higher turnout. Second, I discover that changes in aggregate EU support directly trigger changes in turnout rates. Third, a multilevel analysis of Eurobarometer data confirms these macro-level trends at the micro level and finds that citizens who consider their country's membership in the EU ‘a good thing’ have a higher likelihood of voting in EP elections than those who reject it. These findings have both empirical and theoretical implications. Empirically, the low turnout in EU elections is directly linked to citizens’ rejection of the EU project. Theoretically, the second-order national election thesis needs to be altered. Turnout in EP elections is driven by not only national-level factors but also citizens’ satisfaction with the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Stockemer, 2012. "Citizens’ support for the European Union and participation in European Parliament elections," European Union Politics, , vol. 13(1), pages 26-46, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:13:y:2012:i:1:p:26-46
    DOI: 10.1177/1465116511419870
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    1. repec:bla:jcmkts:v:44:y:2006:i::p:533-562 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Christine Fauvelle-Aymar & Abel François, 2006. "The impact of closeness on turnout: An empirical relation based on a study of a two-round ballot," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 461-483, June.
    3. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    4. Andreas Follesdal & Simon Hix, 2006. "Why There is a Democratic Deficit in the EU: A Response to Majone and Moravcsik," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 533-562, September.
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    6. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Indicators 2011," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2315.
    7. Marsh, Michael, 1998. "Testing the Second-Order Election Model after Four European Elections," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 591-607, October.
    8. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Indicators 2010," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4373.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cigdem Kentmen-Cin, 2017. "What about Ambivalence and Indifference? Rethinking the Effects of European Attitudes on Voter Turnout in European Parliament Elections," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(6), pages 1343-1359, November.
    2. Nicholas Clark, 2015. "The Federalist Perspective in Elections to the European Parliament," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 524-541, May.

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