Trilateral Dynamics of India–China–Nepal: Assessing Geo-strategic Relations in South Asia

The strategic importance of South Asia stems from its natural resources and advantageous location. However, in recent years, China and India’s rivalry in the subcontinent has altered the geo-strategic landscape in the region. Though much had been explored in the trilateral dynamics of India–China–Nepal, comparative analyses to empirically assess the relative strength of the relationships have been overlooked. Hence, the current paper examined the dynamics of these three countries by evaluating their ability to uphold their ties. It looked at India’s neighbourhood first policy with a particular focus on Nepal, and it further examined how China uses the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a springboard to utilise it as a geopolitical manoeuvre to offset India’s hegemony in the area. On the empirical front, the paper examined the pattern of investment from China’s BRI in Nepal and contrasted it with China’s overall investment trends in Nepal. The paper argues that although BRI investment in Nepal is increasing, there is a significant decline in the overall investment from China. In contrast, India’s investment in Nepal had an upward trajectory that surpassed China’s investment volume. The paper discussed potential ways to achieve trilateral relations among these three countries by promoting sustained cooperation.