Handguns in the Twenty-First Century: Alternative Policy Futures

This article speculates about public policy toward handguns in the United States a generation in the future. Two mutually exclusive national policies are described. The first policy, federal support for state and local varia tion in handgun control, represents a logical extension of historical trends in federal firearms control since the 1930s. The second policy, federal commitment to reduce substantially the availability of handguns nationwide, would represent a significant departure from previous federal regulatory ap proaches. This more stringent regulatory approach might evolve from increasing interdependence, continuing high rates of handgun violence, and public perception that hand gun control based on state and local variation is fundamentally unworkable. Public attitudes toward handguns as instruments of household self-defense are one key leading indicator of future federal policy directions. If the handgun in the house remains a respectable means of self-defense, restrictive proposals at the national level are probably doomed. A future decline in the social status of the loaded handgun in the home would create a policy climate more favorable to sharp reduction of the civilian handgun inventory.