Trends in Education and Training

Because of changes in the magnitude of cohorts to be educated, the elementary school population will fluctuate by a decrease of some 7 million pupils and more than a quarter of a million teachers, followed by increases of the same magnitude over the 14 years following 1982. Such variation will impose traumatic adjustments upon the educational system. The increasing enrollment in prekindergarten schools pushes new responsibilities on the school system and promises to accelerate progress in primary grades. A number of unmet needs of school children, which require attention, correction of speech deficiencies and the special problems of the emotionally disturbed, for example, are identified. The record of retention in school is satisfactory up to high school ages, but drop-outs and decreasing enrollment of youth 17 years and over are unmistakable. Educational lag is apparent in both dropping out and in falling behind the modal grade of the school age group. Females are beginning to surpass males in college going. The continuation from high school to college appears to have peaked and now is decreasing, but the college attendance of youth in the top half of the ability spectrum may be superior to the record two decades ago. As to learning, particularly in the secondary schools, the evidence of improvement is scant while there are extensive indicators of decreasing test performance at the end of high school. Models of processes of education are needed to identify appropriate educational statistics to improve social indicators of education in the United States.