What Happens If ...? Terrorists, Revolutionaries, and Nuclear Weapons

This paper explores what may happen if ter rorists or revolutionaries are able to develop nuclear explo sives or the ability to dispense radioactive materials. Contin ued proliferation of so-called peaceful nuclear technology will increase the likelihood of this happening. The consequences are substantial, since nuclear technology would provide terrorists or revolutionaries with a lever for threatening or carrying out acts of mass destruction against a society. Deterrence would be ineffective against terrorists who are unidentified and/or unlocatable, or at least believe themselves to be so. Complications would arise, which could potentially trigger an international war, if nuclear-armed terrorists or revolutionaries deliberately misidentify themselves. The solution to the problem would require perfect safeguarding of nuclear weapons and special nuclear materials on a global scale. The record in the United States, a technologically advanced nation with an established nuclear program, sug gests that perfect safeguards are unlikely to be achieved. Thus, future policy-makers may face a significantly enhanced threat from terrorists or revolutionaries in possession of a nuclear weapon.