The Soviet Union and the United States in the Middle East

No unchanging aim or strategy ordained by geography or ideology provides a full explanation of the course of Soviet policy in the Middle East. The Soviet presence has grown, notably in the past fifteen years, through oppor tunistic diplomacy, the deployment of military and especially naval power, and the expansion of influence in certain states through arms deliveries, economic aid, and political support. In general, the Soviet leaders have been successful in making their country a Middle East power, at the expense of positions previously held by Western powers. In the Northern Tier it has gained by normalizing its relations with Turkey and Iran. In the Arab-Israel zone it has established preponderant influence in a number of Arab states, taking advantage of the Arab-Israeli conflict and of inter-Arab disputes. While Soviet-American rivalry in the region could lead to armed conflict, the greater likelihood is prolonged political competi tion. From that standpoint the Soviets may encounter many obstacles, especially the force of local nationalism. For those obstacles to be effective, however, the United States will have to maintain its own military presence and political interest in the region. The attainment of detente will depend both on negotiation and on balanced power.