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The Econometric Model for the Economic and Financial Analysis of Romanian International Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Mario G.R. Pagliacci

    (Unversita degli studi di Perugia, Italy)

  • Constantin Anghelache

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, “Artifex”University of Bucharest)

  • Alexandru Manole

    (“Artifex”University of Bucharest)

  • Madalina Gabriela Anghel

    (“Artifex”University of Bucharest)

Abstract

This paper describes the evolutions of the international trade of Romania during the recent period. The authors rely on official statistical data, drawn from the publications of the National Institute of Statistics and the results are presented using graphs of proper structure. The data are analyzed depending on the Combined Nomenclature, as reference for grouping statistic data. These elements are usually encountered in the case of countries of low level as development. On an annual basis, the foreign trade activity has developed slowly from the point of view of the volume, which is negative as well as considering both components, import and export. The evolution of imports and exports has been stimulated also by the slight appreciations of the national currency. At the same time, the positive element of currency appreciation implies a negative effect on the exports. Along with the effects of the economic and financial crisis, another element which has generated a slower rhythm evolution for imports and exports consists of the fact that the process of privatization and restructuring, involved the closure of a number of companies. Those data were analyzed and interpreted, based on a system of indicators which reflects the evolutions and perspectives of economic international exchanges. Also, we focused on the structure of the foreign trade, having in mind the geographic space, goods and services structure, structure of partners and volume of imports and exports of the same goods or from/to same country. As methodology, we used econometric and statistical methods and models, adapted based on the data series. In order to cover many aspects of the international trade, we provided out some data, from different periods and, after analysis, we took out some pertinent conclusions. The analysis was performed from the economic and financial viewpoints. On the other hand, the analyses of international trade were made in connection with the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product. The data on GDP were considered for the same period, and all data are deflated.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario G.R. Pagliacci & Constantin Anghelache & Alexandru Manole & Madalina Gabriela Anghel, 2016. "The Econometric Model for the Economic and Financial Analysis of Romanian International Trade," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(3), pages 53-66, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rsr:journl:v:64:y:2016:i:3:p:53-66
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Catalina Motofei, 2017. "Foreign Trade Evolutions in the European Union," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(2), pages 156-163, April.
    2. Alexandru MANOLE & Emilia STANCIU, 2017. "The Importance Of The Forecasting Methodology In Establishing And Evaluating The National Action Directions," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(6), pages 154-162, June.
    3. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Gabriela Victoria ANGHELACHE & Mirela PANAIT & Ihab Jweida SJ JWEIDA, 2016. "The Analysis of International Trade of Romania," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(12), pages 93-99, December.
    4. Alexandru Manole & Ana Carp & Zoica Nicola & Marius Popovici, 2017. "Romania’s International Trade evolution analysis," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(3), pages 130-139, March.
    5. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL, 2016. "The major economic evolution of Romania by the middle of 2016," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 165-182, Winter.
    6. Alexandru MANOLE & Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Ihab Jweida SJ JWEIDA & Radu STOICA & Emilia STANCIU, 2016. "Structural analysis of foreign trade of Romania," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(12), pages 21-31, December.
    7. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL, 2016. "The major economic evolution of Romania by the middle of 2016," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 165-182, Winter.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    export; nomenclature; import; sector; results;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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