IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rsr/journl/v64y2016i3p53-66.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Econometric Model for the Economic and Financial Analysis of Romanian International Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Mario G.R. Pagliacci

    (Unversita degli studi di Perugia, Italy)

  • Constantin Anghelache

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, “Artifex”University of Bucharest)

  • Alexandru Manole

    (“Artifex”University of Bucharest)

  • Madalina Gabriela Anghel

    (“Artifex”University of Bucharest)

Abstract

This paper describes the evolutions of the international trade of Romania during the recent period. The authors rely on official statistical data, drawn from the publications of the National Institute of Statistics and the results are presented using graphs of proper structure. The data are analyzed depending on the Combined Nomenclature, as reference for grouping statistic data. These elements are usually encountered in the case of countries of low level as development. On an annual basis, the foreign trade activity has developed slowly from the point of view of the volume, which is negative as well as considering both components, import and export. The evolution of imports and exports has been stimulated also by the slight appreciations of the national currency. At the same time, the positive element of currency appreciation implies a negative effect on the exports. Along with the effects of the economic and financial crisis, another element which has generated a slower rhythm evolution for imports and exports consists of the fact that the process of privatization and restructuring, involved the closure of a number of companies. Those data were analyzed and interpreted, based on a system of indicators which reflects the evolutions and perspectives of economic international exchanges. Also, we focused on the structure of the foreign trade, having in mind the geographic space, goods and services structure, structure of partners and volume of imports and exports of the same goods or from/to same country. As methodology, we used econometric and statistical methods and models, adapted based on the data series. In order to cover many aspects of the international trade, we provided out some data, from different periods and, after analysis, we took out some pertinent conclusions. The analysis was performed from the economic and financial viewpoints. On the other hand, the analyses of international trade were made in connection with the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product. The data on GDP were considered for the same period, and all data are deflated.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario G.R. Pagliacci & Constantin Anghelache & Alexandru Manole & Madalina Gabriela Anghel, 2016. "The Econometric Model for the Economic and Financial Analysis of Romanian International Trade," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(3), pages 53-66, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rsr:journl:v:64:y:2016:i:3:p:53-66
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.revistadestatistica.ro/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/RRS3_2016_A3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benjamin Atkinson, 2013. "Rules of Thumb for Balance of Payments Accounting," Journal for Economic Educators, Middle Tennessee State University, Business and Economic Research Center, vol. 13(1), pages 23-28, Fall.
    2. Gardasevic, Ana, 2013. "The Influence Of Foreign Direct Investments On Montenegro Payment Balance," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 4(3), pages 283-294.
    3. Corina Schonauer(Sacală), 2015. "Developments of regional gross domestic product and the unemployment rate in Romania during 2000-2012," Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS), "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 3(2), pages 15-20, December.
    4. Burridge, Peter & Taylor, A M Robert, 2001. "On the Properties of Regression-Based Tests for Seasonal Unit Roots in the Presence of Higher-Order Serial Correlation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 374-379, July.
    5. Corbae,Dean & Durlauf,Steven N. & Hansen,Bruce E. (ed.), 2006. "Econometric Theory and Practice," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521807234, September.
    6. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
    7. Censolo, Roberto & Colombo, Caterina, 2008. "Public consumption composition in a growing economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1479-1495, December.
    8. repec:agr:journl:v:3(604):y:2015:i:3(604):p:137-142 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Madalina Gabriela ANGHEL, 2014. "Econometric Model Applied in the Analysis of the Correlation between Some of the Macroeconomic Variables," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(1), pages 88-94, January.
    10. Ghysels,Eric & Osborn,Denise R., 2001. "The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521565882.
    11. L. Eeckhoudt & C. Gollier & H. Schlesinger, 2005. "Economic and financial decisions under risk," Post-Print hal-00325882, HAL.
    12. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL, 2015. "Analysis of final consumption and gross investment influence on GDP – multiple linear regression model," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(604), A), pages 137-142, Autumn.
    13. Durland, J Michael & McCurdy, Thomas H, 1994. "Duration-Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 279-288, July.
    14. Ansley, Craig F. & Newbold, Paul, 1980. "Finite sample properties of estimators for autoregressive moving average models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 159-183, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Catalina Motofei, 2017. "Foreign Trade Evolutions in the European Union," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(2), pages 156-163, April.
    2. Alexandru MANOLE & Emilia STANCIU, 2017. "The Importance Of The Forecasting Methodology In Establishing And Evaluating The National Action Directions," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(6), pages 154-162, June.
    3. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Gabriela Victoria ANGHELACHE & Mirela PANAIT & Ihab Jweida SJ JWEIDA, 2016. "The Analysis of International Trade of Romania," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(12), pages 93-99, December.
    4. Alexandru Manole & Ana Carp & Zoica Nicola & Marius Popovici, 2017. "Romania’s International Trade evolution analysis," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(3), pages 130-139, March.
    5. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL, 2016. "The major economic evolution of Romania by the middle of 2016," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 165-182, Winter.
    6. Alexandru MANOLE & Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Ihab Jweida SJ JWEIDA & Radu STOICA & Emilia STANCIU, 2016. "Structural analysis of foreign trade of Romania," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(12), pages 21-31, December.
    7. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL, 2016. "The major economic evolution of Romania by the middle of 2016," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 165-182, Winter.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chambers, Marcus J. & Ercolani, Joanne S. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2014. "Testing for seasonal unit roots by frequency domain regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 243-258.
    2. Irina Georgescu & Jani Kinnunen, 2013. "A risk approach by credibility theory," Fuzzy Information and Engineering, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 399-416, December.
    3. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL, 2016. "The major economic evolution of Romania by the middle of 2016," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 165-182, Winter.
    4. Politis, Dimitris, 2016. "HEGY test under seasonal heterogeneity," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt2q4054kf, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    5. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL, 2017. "Macroeconomic models used in structural analysis of GDP," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 197-206, Spring.
    6. Loubergé, Henri & Malevergne, Yannick & Rey, Béatrice, 2020. "New Results for additive and multiplicative risk apportionment," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 140-151.
    7. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL, 2017. "Macroeconomic models used in structural analysis of GDP," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 197-206, Spring.
    8. Louis R. Eeckhoudt & Roger J. A. Laeven, 2021. "Probability Premium and Attitude Towards Probability," Papers 2105.00054, arXiv.org.
    9. Tomas del Barrio Castro, 2007. "Using the HEGY Procedure When Not All Roots Are Present," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(6), pages 910-922, November.
    10. Smith, Richard J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert & del Barrio Castro, Tomas, 2009. "Regression-Based Seasonal Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 527-560, April.
    11. Patricia Apps & Yuri Andrienko & Ray Rees, 2014. "Risk and Precautionary Saving in Two-Person Households," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 1040-1046, March.
    12. Heller, Yuval & Schreiber, Amnon, 2020. "Short-term investments and indices of risk," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(3), July.
    13. Luis C. Nunes & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2011. "On LM‐type tests for seasonal unit roots in the presence of a break in trend," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 108-134, March.
    14. Rotger, Gabriel Pons, "undated". "Testing for Seasonal Unit Roots with Temporally Aggregated Time Series," Economics Working Papers 2003-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    15. Altansukh, Gantungalag & Becker, Ralf & Bratsiotis, George J. & Osborn, Denise R., 2017. "What is the Globalisation of Inflation?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 74, pages 1-27.
    16. del Barrio Castro, Tomás & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Robert Taylor, A.M., 2018. "Semi-Parametric Seasonal Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 447-476, April.
    17. André de Palma & Nathalie Picard & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2009. "Prise en compte de l'attitude face au risque dans le cadre de la directive MiFID," Working Papers hal-00418892, HAL.
    18. Harvey, David I. & van Dijk, Dick, 2006. "Sample size, lag order and critical values of seasonal unit root tests," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(10), pages 2734-2751, June.
    19. Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2007. "Efficient tests of the seasonal unit root hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 548-573, December.
    20. Constantin Anghelache & Alexandru Manole & Madalina-Gabriela Anghel & Emilia Stanciu & Alexandru Ursache, 2017. "Some Significant Macroeconomic Evolutions at the End of 2016," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(1), pages 213-224, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    export; nomenclature; import; sector; results;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rsr:journl:v:64:y:2016:i:3:p:53-66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adrian Visoiu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/stagvro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.