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Model Estimates Of Gross Domestic Product In Relation to Export And Import Of Fuels, Focused on the Elasticity and Determination Of Directly and Indirectly Associated Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Gheorghe Savoiu

    (University of Pitesti)

  • Emilia Gogu

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

  • Alexandru Ionescu

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

Abstract

The article is based on several interrogative assumptions related to the positive impact of the crises and the recession on determinations in the econometric models of Romania’s GDP as a variable dependent in relation to the export and import of fuels. After a short introductory section, which details, in a relative manner, the overall goal and the objectives of the paper, a first section makes use of elasticity and the modern solutions of building the coefficient of elasticity, proposing an original alternative to existing variants, and afterwards the next section builds on these statistical tools in the econometric modeling of Romania’s GDP, starting from the ratios and value indicators and offering a few original models where the export and import of fuels are the key initial explanatory factors. The final remarks reinterpret the role of the energy resources, as well as that of the related flows, in enhancing statistical connections, and especially the role of crises and recessions in validating econometric models, by raising their degree of predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Gheorghe Savoiu & Emilia Gogu & Alexandru Ionescu, 2016. "Model Estimates Of Gross Domestic Product In Relation to Export And Import Of Fuels, Focused on the Elasticity and Determination Of Directly and Indirectly Associated Rates," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(1), pages 21-40, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rsr:journl:v:64:y:2016:i:1:p:21-40
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mantegna,Rosario N. & Stanley,H. Eugene, 2007. "Introduction to Econophysics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521039871, January.
    2. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
    3. Olivier de La Grandville & Rainer Klump, 2000. "Economic Growth and the Elasticity of Substitution: Two Theorems and Some Suggestions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 282-291, March.
    4. Michaël Assous & Olivier Bruno & Muriel Dal-Pont Legrand, 2015. "The Law of Diminishing Elasticity of Demand in Harrod’s Trade Cycle (1936)," GREDEG Working Papers 2015-02, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gross domestic product (GDP) elasticity coefficient; correlation matrix; econometric model; fuel export / import;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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