IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rsk/journ5/2414407.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Commodity value-at-risk modeling: comparing RiskMetrics, historic simulation and quantile regression

Author

Listed:
  • Marie Steen, Sjur Westgaard and Ole Gjølberg

Abstract

ABSTRACT Commodities constitute a nonhomogeneous asset class. Return distributions differ widely across different commodities, both in terms of tail fatness and skewness. These are features that we need to take into account when modeling risk. In this paper, we outline the return characteristics of nineteen different commodity futures during the period 1992-2013. We then evaluate the performance of two standard risk modeling approaches, ie, RiskMetrics and historical simulation, against a quantile regression (QR) approach. Our findings strongly support the conclusion that QR outperforms these standard approaches in predicting value-at-risk for most commodities.

Suggested Citation

Handle: RePEc:rsk:journ5:2414407
as

Download full text from publisher

File URL: https://www.risk.net/system/files/import/protected/digital_assets/8953/Commodity_value_at_risk_modeling_comparing_RiskMetrics_historic_simulation_and_quantile_regression.pdf
Download Restriction: no
---><---

More about this item

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rsk:journ5:2414407. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Paine (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.risk.net/journal-of-risk-model-validation .

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.