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The Business Cycle and its International Transmission: Recent Changes for the Italian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Cacciotti

    (Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze, Roma)

  • Benedetta Cerciello

    (Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze, Roma)

  • Giuseppe De Arcangelis

    (Università di Bari)

  • Giorgia Giovannetti

    (Università di Firenze
    Università di Roma "La Sapienza")

Abstract

This paper presents some "statistical facts" about the Italian business cycle. Our results suggest that in the last decade the Italian economy has been increasingly synchronizing with the Euro Area and still lags behind the US cycle. In line with other industrial countries, the Italian cycle has dampened in the 90s. Especially, the average duration and magnitude of contractions have significantly lowered. Furthermore, a state-dependent structural VAR analysis shows that (unexpected) changes in the US output gap are transmitted to the Italian economy more significantly and more strongly when the US economy is booming rather than contracting.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Cacciotti & Benedetta Cerciello & Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Giorgia Giovannetti, 2005. "The Business Cycle and its International Transmission: Recent Changes for the Italian Economy," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 95(4), pages 87-128, July-Augu.
    • Handle: RePEc:rpo:ripoec:v:95:y:2005:i:4:p:87-128
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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