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L’integrazione commerciale tra l’UE ed i PECO: un modello di gravità nella prospettiva dell’allargamento

Author

Listed:
  • Paola Bertolini

    (Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia)

  • Marco Montanari

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

Using a gravity model, we analyse the possible effects of the EU Eastern enlargement on trade between current and future members. We find evidence that trade integration between the EU and the CEECs has largely been achieved in the second half of the Nineties. The asymmetric liberalization of trade provided by the Europe Agreements actually favoured the CEECs by fostering their exports; on the contrary, exports from the EU to the CEECs still show some margins of growth. Therefore, we should not expect a very strong direct effect on trade from the enlargement.

Suggested Citation

  • Paola Bertolini & Marco Montanari, 2002. "L’integrazione commerciale tra l’UE ed i PECO: un modello di gravità nella prospettiva dell’allargamento," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 92(5), pages 35-56, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rpo:ripoec:v:92:y:2002:i:5:p:35-56
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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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