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Socio-Economic Threats To Demographic Growth In Russian Regions: An Empirical Test Based On The Siberian Federal District
[Социально-Экономические Угрозы Демографического Роста В Российских Регионах: Эмпирическая Проверка «Ямы» По Материалам Сфо]

Author

Listed:
  • Kapoguzov Evgeny (Капогузов Е.А.)

    (Omsk State University named after F.M. Dostoevsky)

  • Karpov Valery (Карпов В.В.)

    (Omsk scientific center of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Chupin Roman (Чупин Р.И.)

    (Omsk scientific center of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

The article develops the question of the influence of "demographic holes" on population decline on the materials of the regions of the Siberian Federal District. Research hypothesis: the expected decline in population is due to the superposition of two "demographic holes". As a result of the presence of demographic holes, the aging processes of the population are intensifying. To test this hypothesis, it is proposed to calculate the parameters of population aging in the Siberian Federal District at the beginning of 2020, as well as to analyze the dynamics of the aging index. The conclusion was made about a high level of old age of the population. Since 2015, there has been an intensification of the aging process of the population, which is due to a sharp increase in the proportion of people 65 years and older. Despite this, the impact of population aging processes on the total fertility rate and, therefore, on demographic growth is not significant. Regression analysis revealed that the unemployment rate, the value of which increased significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, has the greatest negative impact on demographic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Kapoguzov Evgeny (Капогузов Е.А.) & Karpov Valery (Карпов В.В.) & Chupin Roman (Чупин Р.И.), 2020. "Socio-Economic Threats To Demographic Growth In Russian Regions: An Empirical Test Based On The Siberian Federal District [Социально-Экономические Угрозы Демографического Роста В Российских Региона," State and Municipal Management Scholar Notes, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 4, pages 97-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:smmscn:s20414
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