Monetary incomes, poverty and consumer expenditures in the regions: long-term trends and impact factors[Доходы, Бедность И Потребительские Расходы Населения Регионов: Долгосрочные Тренды И Факторы Влияния]

Relevance. In accordance with the Unified Plan for Achieving the National Development Goals of the Russia, the annual growth rate of real incomes of the population is to amount to 102.5%, while the poverty rate is to be halved compared to the level of 2017. Significant variation between regions in income and the poverty rate hinder achieving the set goals. Siberian regions have long had lower income indicators and higher poverty rates compared to the national average indicators. This problem confirms the scientific and practical significance of the research. Research purpose: to analyze long-term incomes, absolute poverty, consumer spending of the population in order to determine the socio-economic factors contributing to either growth or reduction of income, the extent of poverty, and changes in the consumption pattern of the population. Research methods. To assess the poverty rate the concept of absolute poverty was used and also comparative and dynamic analysis, correlation and multiple regression analysis Results. In 2014–2020, a trend towards reduction and stagnation of incomes of the population was formed. In 2020–2021, a gradual decrease in the level of absolute poverty started owing to the growth of targeted assistance to families with children, the unemployed, and households with incomes below the subsistence level. Changes in consumer behavior: up to 2014 the reduction in food spending was observed, after that the reverse trend occurred; household expenses for services increased, including housing and communal services, and transportation. During the pandemic, an increase in the consumption of medical services was observed. Depending on the poverty rate, the Siberian regions are classified into outsider regions with the highest proportion of the poor (Tyva, Gorny Altai, Buryatia), distressed and less distressed regions with medium and relatively low poverty rates. The research also identified factors having a statistically significant impact on poverty. These are the level and intra-regional inequality of income, the proportion of the rural population, the dependency burden. In the group of distressed and less distressed regions, the employment rate is a significant factor. The increase in employment results in reducing the proportion of the poor. The Russian national strategy to reduce poverty through income growth, employment rates, and assistance to families with children will become more effective if demographic, economic, settlement peculiarities of various regions are taken into consideration.