Fertility in the COVID-19 pandemic: dynamics reasons[Рождаемость В Период Пандемии Covid-19: Причины Формирования Динамики]

Since January 2020, the world has been facing new realities – in conditions of COVID-19 – a new infectious disease spread, a pandemic was declared. The non-standard situation has brought to an imbalance in health care system, a surge in death rate, and a higher psychological anxiety. Lockdowns, a reduction in international interaction, a slowdown in trade, and the closure of contact-intensive industries have undermined the economies of the world and Russia in particular. Academic literature knows that a surge in mortality due to social, economic, natural disasters entails a birth rate reduction in the short term. So, the research purpose was to identify current trends in fertility and the dynamics of fertility attitudes, as well as to assess the economic condition of the population before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia and its northern regions (exemplified by the Komi Republic). The research methodology involves three units, each of which includes a number of indicators to assess the situation: the first two – demographic and economic – are based on the official state statistics assessment, the third unit is sociological. In the economic unit , using statistical data, changes were identified in the main indicators of macroeconomic development and the standard of living before and after the pandemic; the demographic unit made it possible to assess the fertility processes dynamics; the sociological unit covers interpretation of the three sociological studies conducted by employees of the ISE and EPS FRC Komi Scientific Center of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2013, 2017 and 2020 with the aim to identify fertility attitudes and the economic conditions of the economically active population of active reproductive age (20-39 years) of the Komi Republic. The research revealed a deterioration in economic indicators under the pandemic, a decrease in total fertility rate, and an increased number – in the period between studies – of those individuals (families) who live below or near the poverty line.