Statistical and econometric analysis of Russian exports[Статистический И Эконометрический Анализ Российского Экспорта]

The article is devoted to the statistical and econometric analysis of Russia’s exports and the factors that determine their dynamics. The study uses time series of data on export volumes and export prices, as well as econometric estimates. The methodological basis of the study is the econometric macroeconomic model of Russia created by the authors. Based on Russian and international databases, the authors prove that Russia’s exports were growing rapidly until 2008, but then their pace slowed down. Russia’s share in the world trade has been declining in recent years. The authors conclude that despite the fall in export prices, Russia has been increasing its physical export volumes since 2013. The fall in prices was caused by flooding of the world commodity markets by the exports from the developing countries. Exports of energy commodities suffered the most from the fall in prices. Long-run elasticities of the main factors and multipliers of exogenous variables based on econometric estimates of the model parameters show that the amount of exports is most strongly affected by global demand. At the same time price and exchange rates elasticity of exports is low. The reason for this may be the small size of Russian domestic market, the peculiarities of Russian fiscal system (export duties, fiscal rule), protective measures of importers, the dependence of exporters on imports, the increase in domestic prices in the Russian market, etc. Analysis of export duties shows that their role as a source of budget revenue is declining. They rather distort the price structure and deprive Russian exporters of foreign markets, so it is recommended to gradually refuse from this tool. During the pandemic Russian exports and export prices dropped due to the declining global demand. At the same time the dynamics of non-energy exports showed higher stability. The obvious solutions for the further development of Russia’s exports will be to increase the share of non-energy goods and services in its structure, and to expand trade with China and the countries of Southeast Asia. The growth of global demand, the governmental support for exports and investment in transport and port infrastructure, the gradual abolition of export duties, the availability of free factors of production will contribute to export growth.