Methodological basis for analysis of crises of socio-economic systems[Методологические Основания Анализа Кризисов Социально-Экономических Систем]

The current state and development of socio-economic systems of any scale is characterized by many interconnected crisis situations in the economic, social and cultural spheres. The complexity of the phenomenon requires the development of an appropriate methodology on the basis of which it is possible to develop analytical technologies and create adaptive tools for analyzing various crisis processes. There is currently no such methodology. The analysis of crises is unique in each case and does not affect the root causes hidden in the laws of the development of organizational systems. Economic and financial crises are generally considered only at the level of relations between economic factors. In the article, the crisis is considered to be an element of a holistic process of the emergence of contradictions: the pre-crisis situation, the crisis, the resolution of the crisis. The crisis is also analyzed in relation to security issues, it is embedded in the ontology of this issue. The methodological basis for the analysis of the crisis is dialectics. The paper provides a classification of crises according to various grounds at the application level, and makes a typical scheme of crisis analysis at a qualitative level. It is advisable to use factor models for the qualitative analysis that can identify conflicts of interest. The development of a universal apparatus for quantitative analysis of crises at the practical level is problematic due to their wide variety and complexity of systemic links. However, common approaches can be developed on the basis of factor models and probabilistic models of the spread of damage. It is possible to conduct a quantitative analysis of conflicts of interest, as well as a comprehensive assessment of the depth of the crisis for management tasks related to the rational allocation of resources for crisis management.