Analysis of dynamics factors of the basic macroeconomic variables of the Russian federation[Анализ Факторов Динамики Основных Макроэкономических Переменных Российской Федерации]

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic trends of the Russian Federation economy in 2000-2018. The subject of the study is the dynamics of the basic macroeconomic variables, including gross domestic product, fixed capital investment, exports and imports, exchange rate, inflation, and others. The main task is to identify the factors that affect the change of these variables. Its decision will provide recommendations on economic policies that should be adopted to accelerate economic growth and macroeconomic stabilization in general. The methodological basis of the research was an econometric model developed by the authors, as well as tools for macroeconomic analysis, described both in classical works on macroeconomics and in applied works devoted to the analysis of the economy of specific countries. The information base of this study was, first, the statistical databases of the Federal State Statistics Service and the Bank of Russia. Statistical data from the RIM group of the Institute of national economic forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the World Bank were also used. Using these data, based on the author’s econometric model, the elasticity of the dependent variables of the model’s equations was calculated, which made it possible to determine the direct influence of various factors on macroeconomic variables. Second, the model was used to calculate multipliers of exogenous variables, which allowed us to assess the impact of economic policy and foreign economic factors on the main indicators of the Russian economy. The analysis proved that the decline in economic growth was affected by a slowdown in the growth of the labor force, lack of investment, stagnation of aggregate factor productivity, slowing aggregate demand and rising prices for capital goods. The increase in state-controlled prices and tariffs has made a significant contribution to the Russian inflation. The analysis of multipliers showed a strong dependence of the Russian economy on demographic and foreign economic factors, which creates obstacles to its further growth. It is concluded, first, that monetary and fiscal policy must be eased and second, that the only sustainable factor for long-term growth of the Russian economy can be an increase in aggregate factor productivity, which requires a significant increase in investment in technical modernization.