IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rnd/arjebs/v10y2018i4p165-173.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between Changes in Government Bonds, Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Sanusi K A
  • Meyer D F

Abstract

The study examined the dynamic interaction between government bonds, exchange rate and inflation in South Africa. The study follows a quantitative research method, using monthly time series data from 2007 to 2017 within the framework of a Vector Autoregressive Analysis (VAR). Evidence from the empirical analysis shows that government bond accounts for significant variation in the exchange rate and inflation rate within the study period. The causality test also suggests the presence of uni-directional causal relationships from government bonds to exchange rate, and also to the inflation rate. The principal conclusion that emanates from the empirical analysis is that government bonds are an important policy instrument in the management of the exchange rate and the inflation rate in South Africa. The study recommends that the South African Reserve Bank is a coordinator of government bond and should carry out an in-depth analysis of the economic conditions before issuing the government bonds, taking into account its impeding effects on the exchange rate and inflation rate and many other macroeconomic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanusi K A & Meyer D F, 2018. "An Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between Changes in Government Bonds, Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(4), pages 165-173.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:165-173
    DOI: 10.22610/jebs.v10i4(J).2416
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs/article/view/2416/1681
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs/article/view/2416
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22610/jebs.v10i4(J).2416?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    2. Michele Cavallo & Kate Kisselev & Fabrizio Perri & Nouriel Roubini, 2004. "Exchange rate overshooting and the costs of floating," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    3. Holman, Jill A. & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2006. "Financing government expenditures in an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1315-1337, August.
    4. Roubini, Nouriel & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "A growth model of inflation, tax evasion, and financial repression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 275-301, April.
    5. Jeffrey Frankel, 2006. "On the Yuan: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 52(2), pages 246-275, June.
    6. Carlos De Resende, 2007. "Cross-Country Estimates of the Degree of Fiscal Dominance and Central Bank Independence," Staff Working Papers 07-36, Bank of Canada.
    7. Mason Gaffney, 2009. "3. Money, Credit, and Crisis," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 983-1038, October.
    8. Gavin, Michael, 1989. "The stock market and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 181-200, June.
    9. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2008. "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 362-383, March.
    10. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
    11. Eric M. Engen & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2005. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 83-160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Reza Y. Siregar & Victor Pontines, 2005. "External Debt and Exchange Rate Overshooting: The Case of Selected East Asian Countries," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2005-14, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    13. R. Glenn Hubbard & Eric M. Engen, 2004. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," AEI Economics Working Papers 50018, American Enterprise Institute.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    15. Lastrapes, W. D., 1998. "International evidence on equity prices, interest rates and money," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 377-406, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kang-Soek LEE, 2010. "A Euro Peg System as an Alternative for the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 165, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    2. Mwankemwa, Lusajo P. & Ndanshau, Michael O.A., 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Fiscal Deficit on Monetary Policy Transmission in Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 9(4), September.
    3. Muhammad Naveed TAHIR & Faran ALI & Dawood MAMOON, 2016. "Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime for Economic Structure of Pakistan," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 629-641, December.
    4. Umer Jeelanie Banday & Ranjan Aneja, 2019. "Twin deficit hypothesis and reverse causality: a case study of China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Ngan Tran, 2019. "Asymmetric effects of fiscal balance on monetary variables: evidence from large emerging economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1045-1076, September.
    6. Oya Pınar Ardıc & Faruk Selcuk, 2006. "The dynamics of a newly floating exchange rate: the Turkish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 931-941.
    7. Mauro Costantini & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2020. "Consumption, asset wealth, equity premium, term spread, and flight to quality," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(3), pages 778-807, June.
    8. Caravaggio, Nicola & Carnazza, Giovanni, 2022. "The Italian nominal interest rate conundrum: A problem of growth or public finance?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 313-326.
    9. Yougbaré, Lassana, 2011. "Exchange rate arrangements and misalignments: contrasting words and deeds," MPRA Paper 32362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. António Afonso, 2007. "An Avenue for Expansionary Fiscal Contractions," The IUP Journal of Public Finance, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 7-15, August.
    11. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    12. Zijun Wang & Andrew J. Rettenmaier, 2008. "Deficits, Explicit Debt, Implicit Debt, and Interest Rates: Some Empirical Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(1), pages 208-222, July.
    13. BOUNADER, Lahcen, 2016. "Is there a crowding-out effect in the Moroccan context ? Evidence from structural VAR Analysis," MPRA Paper 69275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
    15. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    16. Kocenda, Evzen & Hanousek, Jan & Engelmann, Dirk, 2008. "Currencies, competition, and clans," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1115-1132.
    17. L. Marattin & P. Paesani & S. Salotti, 2011. "Fiscal shocks, public debt, and long-term interest rate dynamics," Working Papers wp740, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    18. Ardagna Silvia & Caselli Francesco & Lane Timothy, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, August.
    19. Weber, Michael & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2021. "Fiscal Policy And Households’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence From A Randomized Control Trial," CEPR Discussion Papers 15821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2016. "Conducting Monetary Policy in South Asian Economies: An Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 161-190.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:165-173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Muhammad Tayyab (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.