IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2023i4p128-142.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices : Comparative Example of ASEAN and BRICS Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Rahman AYDIN

    (Department of Economics, Atatürk University, Erzurum, TURKEY, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, 25240, Erzurum, TURKEY.)

  • Anıl LÖGÜN

    (Department of Econometrics, Atatürk University, Erzurum, TURKEY, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, 25240, Erzurum, TURKEY.)

  • Buket AYDIN

    (Department of Economics, Atatürk University, Erzurum, TURKEY, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, 25240, Erzurum, TURKEY.)

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates, specifically for developing countries. The reason for this focus is that financial markets in developing countries provide important reactions to global shocks. The Covid-19 pandemic, declared by the World Health Organization on 11 March 2020, is the most recent negative shock affecting the economies of these countries. This study thus investigates the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates to identify the effects of the pandemic on financial markets using weekly data for the BRICS and ASEAN (Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand) countries for the period 15 September 2017 and 5 September 2022. The data were employed within two different models, for the pre-pandemic and the pandemic period (measured in relation to the date of the declaration of the pandemic). Comparing the developments during the pandemic period with the pre-pandemic period is another aim of the study. A panel data method was used to examine the relationship between variables. According to the findings, while portfolio theory was valid for Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Russia, India and South Africa in the pre-pandemic period, the traditional theory was valid for China. There was no relationship between the variables for BRICS and ASEAN countries in the post-pandemic period.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahman AYDIN & Anıl LÖGÜN & Buket AYDIN, 2023. "The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices : Comparative Example of ASEAN and BRICS Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 128-142, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2023:i:4:p:128-142
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_2023/rjef4_2023p128-142.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zheng Yang & Anthony H. Tu & Yong Zeng, 2014. "Dynamic linkages between Asian stock prices and exchange rates: new evidence from causality in quantiles," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(11), pages 1184-1201, April.
    2. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2020. "The foreign exchange and stock market nexus: New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 240-266.
    3. Peggy M. Lee, 2001. "What's in a name.com?: The effects of ‘.com’ name changes on stock prices and trading activity," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(8), pages 793-804, August.
    4. Hooi Hooi Lean & Paresh Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2011. "Exchange Rate And Stock Price Interaction In Major Asian Markets: Evidence For Individual Countries And Panels Allowing For Structural Breaks," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 56(02), pages 255-277.
    5. Issam Abdalla & Victor Murinde, 1997. "Exchange rate and stock price interactions in emerging financial markets: evidence on India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 25-35.
    6. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    7. Hongfeng Peng & Xiaoyu Tan & Yanli Li & Liqin Hu, 2016. "Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment and CO 2 Emissions in China: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-13, March.
    8. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Richard Meese, 1987. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 117-162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tian, Maoxi & El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M., 2023. "The nonlinear and negative tail dependence and risk spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Salah A. Nusair & Jamal A. Al-Khasawneh, 2022. "On the relationship between Asian exchange rates and stock prices: a nonlinear analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 361-400, February.
    3. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2020. "The foreign exchange and stock market nexus: New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 240-266.
    4. Rabia Luqman & Rehana Kouser, 2018. "Asymmetrical Linkages between Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence through Linear and Non-Linear ARDL," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-13, August.
    5. Andrew Phiri, 2020. "Structural changes in exchange rate-stock returns dynamics in South Africa: examining the role of crisis and new trading platform," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 171-193, February.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2019. "On the effects of policy uncertainty on stock prices," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(4), pages 764-778, October.
    7. Xingxing He & Korhan K. Gokmenoglu & Dervis Kirikkaleli & Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi, 2023. "Co‐movement of foreign exchange rate returns and stock market returns in an emerging market: Evidence from the wavelet coherence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1994-2005, April.
    8. Ogunsanya, Ibukun & Wasiu Adamson, Temitope, 2024. "Exchange Rate Movement And Stock Returns In Most Capitalised Economies In Sub-Saharan Africa," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 11(1), pages 18-37, June.
    9. Bathia, Deven & Demirer, Riza & Ferrer, Román & Raheem, Ibrahim D., 2023. "Cross-border capital flows and information spillovers across the equity and currency markets in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Effiong, Ekpeno L., 2016. "Nonlinear Dependence between Stock Prices and Exchange Rate in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 74336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2018. "On the relation between exchange rates and stock prices: a non-linear ARDL approach and asymmetry analysis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(1), pages 112-137, January.
    12. Adewumi Otonne & Terzungwe Usar & Adebayo Adereni, 2018. "Real Exchange Returns and Real Stock Price Returns in Nigeria: An Econometrics Analysis of the Direction of Causality," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 4(5), pages 131-144, 05-2018.
    13. Xiaoyan Li & Jia Liu & Peijie Ni, 2021. "The Impact of the Digital Economy on CO 2 Emissions: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-15, June.
    14. Lothian, James R., 1997. "Multi-country evidence on the behavior of purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-35, February.
    15. Taoufik Bouezmarni & Mohamed Doukali & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2024. "Testing Granger non-causality in expectiles," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 30-51, January.
    16. Zhongwei, Huang & Liu, Yishu, 2022. "The role of eco-innovations, trade openness, and human capital in sustainable renewable energy consumption: Evidence using CS-ARDL approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 131-140.
    17. Sensoy, Ahmet & Sobaci, Cihat, 2014. "Effects of volatility shocks on the dynamic linkages between exchange rate, interest rate and the stock market: The case of Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 448-457.
    18. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2019. "Saving and investment causality: implications for financial integration in transition countries of Eastern Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 397-416, April.
    19. Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Talknice Saungweme, "undated". "Does International Tourism Spur International Trade In Ssa Countries? A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AESRI07, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    20. Mao, Qian & Ma, Xinyuan & Sun, Yunpeng, 2023. "Study of impacts of blockchain technology on renewable energy resource findings," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 802-808.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Markets; Exchange Rate; Stock Price; Panel Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B26 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Financial Economics
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2023:i:4:p:128-142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.