IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2011i1p5-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks Between the New Member States and the Euro Zone. The Case of Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Dumitru, Ionut

    (1Academy of the Economic Studies Bucharest and Head of RESEARCH with Raiffeisen Bank Romania)

  • Dumitru, Ionela

    (Academy of the Economic Studies Bucharest)

Abstract

This paper assesses the correlation of supply and demand shocks between New Member States (NMS), including Romania, and the Eurozone. Using a structural VAR approach, we estimated the similarity between demand (both nominal and real) and supply shocks between NMS and the Eurozone, showing that the demand shocks are still negatively correlated with the Eurozone for some NMS, including Romania. Also, using a moving window, we estimated that the correlation of shocks increased over time, especially in the case of supply shocks. Even for some core members of the Eurozone, we find that the demand shocks seem to be idiosyncratic. The main conclusion of our paper is the fact that Romania, as well as some other NMS countries, still need time to become more synchronized and to avoid the occurrence of asymmetric shocks once they become members of the Eurozone.

Suggested Citation

  • Dumitru, Ionut & Dumitru, Ionela, 2011. "Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks Between the New Member States and the Euro Zone. The Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 5-19, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:1:p:5-19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_11/rjef1_2011p5-19.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tudor Mugurel Aursulesei & Liviu - George Maha, 2020. "Dysfunctions Of The European Monetary Union," Junior Scientific Researcher, SC Research Publishing SRL, vol. 6(1), pages 82-91, May.
    2. Henryk Bąk & Sebastian Maciejewski, 2017. "The symmetry of demand and supply shocks in the European Monetary Union," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(1), pages 1-44.
    3. Zapodeanu Daniela, 2012. "Real And Nominal Convergence, The Syncronization Of Business Cycles Between The New Eurozone Members (Nem) Slovenia, Slovakia, Cyprus , Estonia And The Core Eurozone," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 629-634, December.
    4. Krzysztof Beck, 2016. "Business Cycle Synchronization In European Union: Regional Perspective," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(4), pages 785-815, December.
    5. Tudor Mugurel AURSULESEI, 2018. "The sustainability of Romania's accession to the Euro Area - A political project anchored in economic reality," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10(4), pages 480-490, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal currency area; supply and demand shocks; business cycle synchronization; euro adoption; convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:1:p:5-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.