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Multi - Annual Scenarios Using A Small – Sized Rmsm Type Of Model In Order To Forecast The Main Macroeconomic Indicators In Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolae, Mariana

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

  • Albu, Lucian Liviu

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

  • Andrei, Dalina

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

  • Stanica, Cristian

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

  • Iordan, Mioara

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

Abstract

Using a small-size RMSM model, the authors simulate development alternatives in the medium run, revealing their implications upon the Romanian economy. The reference scenario is characterized by a moderate economic growth, based on the increase in the investements. Both imports exports are expected to increase, but the trade deficit is also expected to increase. The authors develop two alternatives scenarios and compare the results with the results of Dobrescu model simulated for the same assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolae, Mariana & Albu, Lucian Liviu & Andrei, Dalina & Stanica, Cristian & Iordan, Mioara, 2003. "Multi - Annual Scenarios Using A Small – Sized Rmsm Type Of Model In Order To Forecast The Main Macroeconomic Indicators In Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 25-31, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2003:i:5:p:25-31
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    RMSM models; economic growth; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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