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Innovation and Natural Resources: A Dynamic Game with Uncertainty

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  • Christopher Harris
  • John Vickers

Abstract

We analyze a dynamic game between a resource-exporting country and an importing country that is seeking to invent a substitute technology. The time of innovation is an uncertain function of the importer's R&D efforts, which cannot be committed in advance. The game has a unique equilibrium in Markov strategies. The importer's R&D efforts grow over time. The exporter's output often decreases with time before innovation occurs, but strategic factors imply that the opposite can happen. The output path is characterized by a simple modification of Hotelling's rule to account for uncertainty and strategic behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Harris & John Vickers, 1995. "Innovation and Natural Resources: A Dynamic Game with Uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 26(3), pages 418-430, Autumn.
    • Handle: RePEc:rje:randje:v:26:y:1995:i:autumn:p:418-430
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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Lambertini, 2014. "Exploration For Nonrenewable Resources In A Dynamic Oligopoly: An Arrovian Result," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(02), pages 1-11.
    2. Michielsen, T.O., 2013. "Strategic Resource Extraction And Substitute Development," Other publications TiSEM 3274a291-31be-42c1-9a4d-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Zhang, Xiao-Bing, 2014. "Strategic Carbon Taxation and Energy Pricing: The Role of Innovation," Working Papers in Economics 589, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    4. Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Leach, Andrew & Moreaux, Michel, 2011. "Would hotelling kill the electric car?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 281-296, May.
    5. S. Kostyunin & A. Palestini & E. Shevkoplyas, 2014. "On a Nonrenewable Resource Extraction Game Played by Asymmetric Firms," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 660-673, November.
    6. Douglas Hanley & Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2014. "Transition to Clean Technology," Working Paper 534, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Jan 2014.
    7. Morita, Tamaki & Higashida, Keisaku & Takarada, Yasuhiro & Managi, Shunsuke, 2018. "Does acquisition of mineral resources by firms in resource-importing countries reduce resource prices?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 97-110.
    8. Jaakkola, Niko, 2019. "Carbon taxation, OPEC and the end of oil," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 101-117.
    9. Jaakkola, Niko & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2019. "Non-cooperative and cooperative climate policies with anticipated breakthrough technology," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 42-66.
    10. Xiao-Bing Zhang, 2024. "A Dynamic Game of Strategic Carbon Taxation and Energy Pricing with Green Technology Innovation," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 1027-1055, September.
    11. José Daniel López-Barrientos & Ekaterina Viktorovna Gromova & Ekaterina Sergeevna Miroshnichenko, 2020. "Resource Exploitation in a Stochastic Horizon under Two Parametric Interpretations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-29, July.
    12. Santiago Rubio, 2011. "On Capturing Rent from a Non-renewable Resource International Monopoly: Prices Versus Quantities," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 558-580, December.
    13. Reyer Gerlagh & Matti Liski, 2014. "Cake-Eating with Private Information," CESifo Working Paper Series 5050, CESifo.
    14. Michielsen, Thomas O., 2014. "Strategic resource extraction and substitute development," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 455-468.
    15. Vicknair, David & Tansey, Michael & O'Brien, Thomas E., 2022. "Measuring fossil fuel reserves: A simulation and review of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Gerlagh, Reyer & Liski, Matti, 2008. "Strategic Resource Dependence," Economic Theory and Applications Working Papers 44222, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    17. Michielsen, T.O., 2013. "Strategic Resource Extraction And Substitute Development," Discussion Paper 2013-014, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    18. Gerlagh, Reyer & Liski, Matti, 2011. "Strategic resource dependence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 699-727, March.
    19. Ngo Long, 2011. "Dynamic Games in the Economics of Natural Resources: A Survey," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 115-148, March.

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