IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rje/bellje/v2y1971ispringp51-93.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The FPC Staff's Econometric Model of Natural Gas Supply in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • J. Daniel Khazzoom

Abstract

The main emphasis in this study is on gas discoveries. They constitute the propelling force behind gas supply, and of the two broad relationships for which results are reported here - namely, discoveries and extensions and revisions - gas discovery is (qualitatively) the more important. Estimates for 1961-68 and 1961-69 discoveries are reported for a dynamic model, using time series of cross sections. Estimation is done first for a one-intercept model. Alternatively, the units (districts) are grouped by geological and geophysical characteristics, and estimates are derived for the grouped-districts model. This model yields generally better results. The inclusion of 1969 in the sampled period does not alter the results reported for 1961-68, and the discussion centers on the 1961-69 estimates. Conditional forecasts of 1970 discoveries indicate a drop of one-fifth to one-fourth of 1969 discoveries. The time path of the response of discoveries to the ceiling price of gas is examined, and simulation results for gas discoveries under alternative assumptions about the ceiling price of gas are reported. A procedure for combining the simulation results with available information on future gas requirements is developed to help the FPC in deciding on an appropriate level for the ceiling price of gas. Some policy implications are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Daniel Khazzoom, 1971. "The FPC Staff's Econometric Model of Natural Gas Supply in the United States," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 2(1), pages 51-93, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:rje:bellje:v:2:y:1971:i:spring:p:51-93
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0005-8556%28197121%292%3A1%3C51%3ATFSEMO%3E2.0.CO%3B2-O&origin=repec
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Xu & Dahl, Carol A. & Luo, Dongkun, 2019. "How OECD countries subsidize oil and natural gas producers and modeling the consequences: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 111-126.
    2. ten Cate, Arie & Mulder, Machiel, 2007. "Impact of the oil price and fiscal facilities on offshore mining at the Dutch Continental Shelf," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5601-5613, November.
    3. Pagoulatos, Angelos & Debertin, David L. & Pagoulatos, Emilio, 1978. "Government Price Policies And The Availability Of Crude Oil," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-16, July.
    4. Managi, Shunsuke & Opaluch, James J. & Jin, Di & Grigalunas, Thomas A., 2005. "Technological change and petroleum exploration in the Gulf of Mexico," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 619-632, March.
    5. Omowumi O. Iledare & Allan G. Pulsipher & Robert H. Baumann, 1995. "Effects of an Increasing Role for Independents on Petroleum Resource Development in the Gulf of Mexico OCS Region," The Energy Journal, , vol. 16(2), pages 59-76, April.
    6. Dahl, Carol & Duggan, Thomas E., 1998. "Survey of price elasticities from economic exploration models of US oil and gas supply," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 129-169.
    7. Sterman, John & Richardson, George P. & Davidsen, Pål I., 1987. "Modeling the estimation of petroleum resources in the United States," Working papers 1900-87., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    8. Machiel Mulder & Arie ten Cate & Ali Aouragh & Joeri Gorter, 2004. "Gas exploration and production at the Dutch continental shelf: an assessment of the 'Depreciation at Will'," CPB Document 66, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    9. Machiel Mulder & Arie ten Cate & Ali Aouragh & Joeri Gorter, 2004. "Gas exploration and production at the Dutch continental shelf: an assessment of the 'Depreciation at Will'," CPB Document 66.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. Xu Zhao & Carol A. Dahl & Dongkun Luo, 2015. "How OECD countries subsidize oil and natural gas producers and modeling the consequences: A review with recommendations," Working Papers 2015-03, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    11. Daniel J. Khazzoom, 1987. "The Demand for Insulation—A Study in the Household Demand for Conservation," The Energy Journal, , vol. 8(3), pages 73-92, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rje:bellje:v:2:y:1971:i:spring:p:51-93. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.rje.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.