La curva de Phillips en la nueva economía keynesiana: una revisión crítica

This paper contains three parts. In the first section, we review the literature that laid the groundwork for the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. In the second section, the standard model and the derived models that underpin the Phillips curve within New Keynesian Economics are submitted to a theoretical and formal analysis. Finally, we examine the validity conditions and the scope of the theoretical proposals of these models. The conclusions hold that the standard model, although apparently consistent with microeconomic fundamentals, is actually inconsistent with empirical evidence. In particular, its completely prospective nature violates the fact that to a great extent inflation depends on its previous record. Furthermore, this implies, contrary to what was observed, that there may be possible deflationary booms after announced policies to restrict monetary supply. The derived models, which incorporate imperfect information hypotheses and/or backward-looking expectations, are not in the end dissuasive due to their ad hoc nature and other theoretical inconsistencies.