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Demanda de exportaciones e importaciones en el Perú: estimación de elasticidades precio e ingreso, enero 2012-febrero 2022

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  • Peña Cobeñas, Dagoberto Carlos

Abstract

Usando data mensual del periodo enero 2012-febrero 2022 y un modelo autorregresivo de retardo distribuido con el posterior mecanismo de corrección del error, este estudio estima las elasticidades precio e ingreso de las exportaciones e importaciones reales en el Perú, considerando a Estados Unidos como el socio comercial de referencia. Los resultados revelan que: (i) únicamente el flujo de exportación real (total, tradicional y no tradicional) aumenta significativamente durante la crisis Covid-19 (marzo 2020-febrero 2022); (ii) la elasticidad ingreso del comercio real es positiva en el corto plazo, y negativa en la mayoría de flujos a largo plazo. Sin embargo, no se registra un consenso para la elasticidad precio; (iii) existe una relación bidireccional en el comercio real, generándose mayor exportación vía la importación de bienes de consumo, insumos y bienes de capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Peña Cobeñas, Dagoberto Carlos, 2022. "Demanda de exportaciones e importaciones en el Perú: estimación de elasticidades precio e ingreso, enero 2012-febrero 2022," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 38, pages 47-93, Noviembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:2003
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Comercio internacional; elasticidad precio e ingreso; cointegración;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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