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Una revisión a la Curva de Phillips en Bolivia

Author

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  • Mora Barrenechea, Mauricio

Abstract

El presente documento realiza una investigación empírica exploratoria sobre el estado de la pendiente de la Curva de Phillips para la economía boliviana con datos trimestrales, para el periodo entre 1992T2–2019T4, empleando el Método Generalizado de Momentos (GMM) con regresiones recursivas. Para tal efecto, se estimó una brecha de producto consistente con la teoría económica. Se encuentra que la brecha del producto tiene un efecto positivo y significativo sobre la inflación en el corto plazo, por lo que la Curva de Phillips se cumple. Más aún, se habría fortalecido el vínculo entre la inflación y el ciclo económico en los últimos años. Si bien la inercia inflacionaria es el principal determinante en la formación de precios, la importancia de las expectativas aumentó con el tiempo. Por su parte, el efecto del sector externo disminuyó en el último lustro.

Suggested Citation

  • Mora Barrenechea, Mauricio, 2021. "Una revisión a la Curva de Phillips en Bolivia," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 35, pages 159-185, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1992
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Curva de Phillips; Método generalizado de momentos; regresiones recursivas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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