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Consideraciones sobre el nivel óptimo de reservas internacionales para Bolivia: 2003-2009

Author

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  • Cerezo Aguirre, Sergio Cerezo Aguirre

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Abstract

En los últimos años, Bolivia ha acumulado un nivel importante de reservas internacionales, debido a la favorable coyuntura externa y al régimen cambiario vigente (crawling peg). En ese contexto nace la interrogante de cuál es el nivel óptimo de reservas internacionales. Según los indicadores tradicionales de adecuación de reservas, y de acuerdo a un modelo que muestra el rol de las reservas como mitigadora de shocks externos adversos, las reservas óptimas se ubican por debajo de las efectivas constituidas en el banco central desde 2007. Este resultado se mantiene aun cuando se excluyen de las reservas efectivas el oro y los depósitos en moneda extranjera del sector público no financiero en el banco central. Sin embargo, un análisis de sensibilidad muestra que las reservas óptimas pueden incrementarse notablemente si cambian algunos fundamentos macroeconómicos.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerezo Aguirre, Sergio Cerezo Aguirre, 2010. "Consideraciones sobre el nivel óptimo de reservas internacionales para Bolivia: 2003-2009," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 14, pages 41-70.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1402
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reservas internacionales; crisis en la balanza de pagos; dolarización;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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