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Short-Run Oil Price Drivers: South America's Energy Integration

Author

Listed:
  • Mercado, Alejandro F.

    (Universidad Católica Boliviana San Pablo)

  • Aliaga, F. Javier

    (Universidad Católica Boliviana "San Pablo")

Abstract

The aim of this paper seeks to analyse how the energy price's cojuntural behaviour and structural conditions affect the short-run and mid-run overview of the energy integration process in South America (SA). For these porpoise we - first describe the world-wide energy agenda and the effect of current oil price swings and the corresponding natural gas adjustment - next we discuss about the regional stakeholders perspective of energy integration. We used two methodological approaches - first we calculate the oil prices according to their structural conditions or fundamental - second we detect the right ARIMA model with outliers and calendar effects For the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price and the Henry Hub (HH) natural gas price. With this information we develop an analysis proposal based on their underlying growth rate and inertia.

Suggested Citation

  • Mercado, Alejandro F. & Aliaga, F. Javier, 2009. "Short-Run Oil Price Drivers: South America's Energy Integration," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 12, pages 219-239, Octubre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1207
    as

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    Cited by:

    1. Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Herrerra Jiménez, Alejandro, 2014. "Energy-Mix Scenarios for Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 8/2014, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    2. Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Herrera Jiménez, Alejandro, 2014. "Escenarios de la matriz energética para Bolivia," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 22, pages 135-160, Noviembre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    West Texas Intermediate; Henry Hub; Energy Integration; Conjuncture Analysis; Signal Extractio; Underlying Evolution; Underlying Growth; ARIMA Models; and Outliers; market fundamentals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L69 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Other

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