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Analyzing the Asymmetric Effect of Income per Capita, Capital Inflow, and Oil Price on CO2 Emission in IRAN: NARDL Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Sadeghi, Seyed Kamal

    (Professor of Economics, University of Tabriz)

  • Rashid Aj Aj, Haidar Hamid

    (Phd student in Economics,, University of Tabriz)

Abstract

This study examines the asymmetric effects of per capita income, oil prices, industrial value added, and foreign direct investment on CO2 emissions in Iran through a non-linear distributed lag autoregression model (NARDL) from 1989 to 2023. This study also discusses the pollution safe haven hypothesis and the Kuznets U-shaped curve simultaneously and asymmetrically for Iran. Based on the results of this study, only the per capita income variable has a linear relationship with CO2 emissions, while the other variables have a non-linear relationship. The model results showed that OPEC oil prices have an inverse relationship with pollution emissions only in positive shocks. For the foreign investment variable, only a negative shock positively affects pollution emissions, which indicates that Iran is not a pollution-safe haven for other countries. Also, industrial value added only has a positive effect on positive shocks. On the other hand, per capita income has a negative effect on pollution emissions. Finally, this study's findings showed that the U-shaped Kuznets curve is not true for Iran

Suggested Citation

  • Sadeghi, Seyed Kamal & Rashid Aj Aj, Haidar Hamid, 2025. "Analyzing the Asymmetric Effect of Income per Capita, Capital Inflow, and Oil Price on CO2 Emission in IRAN: NARDL Approach," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, vol. 11(4), pages 203-230, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:qjatoe:0359
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    co2; NARDL; Kuznets curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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