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Estimation of housing price bubble in Iran and selected countries (Spatial panel approach)

Author

Listed:
  • Monjazeb, Mohammadreza

    (Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Public Affairs, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran)

  • Ebrahimi, Mohsen

    (Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Public Affairs, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran)

  • Irvani, Leila

    (Master of Economic Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran)

Abstract

Housing price fluctuations in Iran during the last two decades have been one of the main challenges of the housing market. In one period, there has been a significant increase in housing prices, and in another period, housing prices have been reduced or very stable. Fluctuations have caused many changes in the housing sector and in the entire economy. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the shocks affecting the Iranian housing market and compare the amount of the existing bubble compared to the global housing bubble. In this research, an attempt has been made to calculate the real housing price bubble. For this purpose, real housing price index variables, inflation rate, real GDP per capita, unemployment rate, population and real exchange rate have been used. The studied period is annually from 2005-2022 and the sections include 42 selected countries. The data analysis method is spatial panel and Stata, Eviuse and Geoda software were used. The research results confirm the existence of a housing price bubble in Iran and 12 other countries. The amount of housing bubble in Iran is reported to be lower than other bubble countries

Suggested Citation

  • Monjazeb, Mohammadreza & Ebrahimi, Mohsen & Irvani, Leila, 2024. "Estimation of housing price bubble in Iran and selected countries (Spatial panel approach)," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, vol. 11(3), pages 109-134, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:qjatoe:0348
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real housing price bubble; inflation rate; unemployment rate; real exchange rate; spatial panel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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