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Effectiveness of loan-to-value ratio policy and its transmission mechanism:empirical evidence from Hong Kong

Author

Listed:
  • Wong, Eric

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Ho, Kelvin

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Tsang, Andrew

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

This paper provides a non-technical summary of two recent empirical studies to shed light on key important issues regarding the implementation of loan-to-value (LTV) policy as a macroprudential tool, including its effectiveness, potential drawbacks and its transmission mechanism to improve financial stability. Empirical evidence suggests that LTV policy is effective in reducing systemic risk associated with boom-and-bust cycles in property markets. Although the LTV policy may be associated with higher liquidity constraints on homebuyers, we show that the mortgage insurance program (MIP) can mitigate this drawback without undermining the effectiveness of LTV policy. Thus, MIPs play an important role in enhancing the net benefits of LTV policy. Concerning the transmission mechanism, empirical evidence suggests that the policy pass-through to property market activities may be weak. By contrast, there is clear evidence that tightening the LTV cap would reduce household leverage and credit growth, and that lower leverage plays a major role in strengthening banks’ resilience to property price shocks. This finding supports the view that household leverage would be an optimal target of LTV policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Wong, Eric & Ho, Kelvin & Tsang, Andrew, 2015. "Effectiveness of loan-to-value ratio policy and its transmission mechanism:empirical evidence from Hong Kong," Journal of Financial Perspectives, EY Global FS Institute, vol. 3(2), pages 93-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:jofipe:0075
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cardaci, Alberto, 2018. "Inequality, household debt and financial instability: An agent-based perspective," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 434-458.
    2. Hong Kong Monetary Authority, 2017. "Hong Kong’s property market and macroprudential measures," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy frameworks, implementation and relationships with other policies, volume 94, pages 141-152, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Alberto Cardaci & Francesco Saraceno, 2019. "Between Scylla And Charybdis: Income Distribution, Consumer Credit, And Business Cycles," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 953-971, April.
    4. Michael Funke & Michael Paetz, 2018. "Dynamic Stochastic General EQUILIBRIUM ‐ BASED Assessment of Nonlinear Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from Hong Kong," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 632-657, October.
    5. Wong, Siu Kei & Cheung, Ka Shing & Deng, Kuang Kuang & Chau, Kwong Wing, 2021. "Policy responses to an overheated housing market: Credit tightening versus transaction taxes," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Ranisavljević Duško & Hadžić Miroljub, 2016. "Realistic Evaluation of the Ratio: Loan-To-value – The Key to Minimising the Credit Risk," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 54(3), pages 449-468, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loan-to-value policy; mortgage insurance program;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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