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Corporate Yield Spread and Real Activity in Emerging Asia: Evidence of a Financial Accelerator for Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Papadamou, Stephanos

    (University of Thessaly)

  • Siriopoulos, Costas

    (University of Patras)

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between corporate bond market and real economic activity. A linear model is estimated by using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) indicating that the yield spread of corporate bonds (AA-) relative to government bonds - a proxy of liquidity and default risk, known as external finance premium (EFP) - predicts changes in unemployment rate up to six months in the future. An impulse response analysis based on a multivariate VAR shows that a temporary increase in EFP, leads to a persistent increase in unemployment rate, notably after two to eight months. The response of unemployment rate to monetary policy shock is much lower when channel acting through the EFP is blocked off. This evidence is consistent with an operative balance sheet channel of the monetary transmission mechanism, an important result for policy makers and investors. Consequently an efficient and liquid corporate bond market, achieved through financial integration, is of essential meaning for economic growth in Korea.

Suggested Citation

  • Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2009. "Corporate Yield Spread and Real Activity in Emerging Asia: Evidence of a Financial Accelerator for Korea," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 24, pages 275-293.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0474
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kiss, Tamás & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "The Relation between the High-Yield Bond Spread and the Unemployment Rate in the Euro Area," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping & Chang, Chi-Hung, 2014. "Industry co-movement and cross-listing: Do home country factors matter?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 96-110.
    3. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Emmanouil Sofianos, 2022. "Forecasting unemployment in the euro area with machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 551-566, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic fluctuations; monetary policy; transmission mechanism; credit channel; VAR models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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