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Trade Opening and the Behavior of Emerging Stock Market Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Basu, Parantap

    (Fordham University)

  • R. Morey, Matthew

    (Pace University)

Abstract

In this paper we develop a model that explores the effect of trade openness on stock price behavior. The model predicts that stock returns show non-zero serial correlation in a closed economy. However, once the country opens on the trade front, the stock returns show zero serial correlation. The reason for the difference is that once the country opens itself to trade, the growth process becomes selfsustained due to optimal use of imported intermediate inputs. Stock prices reflect this gain in productive efficiency by displaying a random walk behavior. The model also establishes that financial opening alone without trade opening will not lead to gain in efficiency in the stock prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Basu, Parantap & R. Morey, Matthew, 2005. "Trade Opening and the Behavior of Emerging Stock Market Prices," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 20, pages 68-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0306
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Rui & Anderson, Hamish D. & Marshall, Ben R., 2019. "Risk perceptions and international stock market liquidity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 94-116.
    2. Md Lutfur Rahman & Mahbub Khan & Samuel A. Vigne & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2021. "Equity return predictability, its determinants, and profitable trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 162-186, January.
    3. Navaz Naghavi & Muhammad Shujaat Mubarik & Devinder Kaur, 2018. "Financial Liberalization And Stock Market Efficiency: Measuring The Threshold Effects Of Governance," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(04), pages 1-24, December.
    4. Lim, Kian-Ping & Kim, Jae H., 2011. "Trade openness and the informational efficiency of emerging stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2228-2238, September.
    5. Bram Daelemans & Joseph P. Daniels & Farrokh Nourzad, 2018. "Free Trade Agreements and Volatility of Stock Returns and Exchange Rates: Evidence from NAFTA," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 141-163, February.
    6. Gianluca Marcato & Stanimira Milcheva & Chen Zheng, 2018. "Urban Economic Openness and IPO Underpricing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 325-351, April.
    7. Camelia Oprean, 2012. "Testing the financial market informational efficiency in emerging states," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 4(2), pages 181-190, Decembre.
    8. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & You, Kefei & Chen, Lei, 2019. "Global and regional stock market integration in Asia: A panel convergence approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Navaz Naghavi & Wee-Yeap Lau, 2014. "Exploring the nexus between financial openness and informational efficiency -- does the quality of institution matter?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 674-685, March.
    10. George Filis, 2006. "Testing for Market Efficiency in Emerging Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 5(2), pages 121-133, August.
    11. Tran, Thi Bich Ngoc, 2017. "Speculative bubbles in emerging stock markets and macroeconomic factors: A new empirical evidence for Asia and Latin America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 454-467.
    12. Assad Ullah & Xinshun Zhao & Unbreen Qayyum & Muhammad Abdul Kamal & Aamir Aijaz Sayed, 2024. "Modeling the Relationship Between Environmental Regulations and Stock Market Growth in China: Evidence Beyond Symmetry," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 2460-2481, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade Liberalization; Emerging Stock Markets; Stock Market Efficiency; Trade Openness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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