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Are no-Ponzi game and transversality conditions relevant for public debt?

Author

Listed:
  • Azizi, Karim

    (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Canry, Nicolas

    (Centre d'Économie de la Sorbonne Université Paris 1 (Panthéon-Sorbonne))

  • Chatelain, Jean-Bernard

    (Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne)

  • Tinel, Bruno

    (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

Abstract

This paper investigates the relevance of the no-Ponzi game condition for public debt (i.e. the public debt growth rate has to be lower than the real interest rate, a necessary assumption for Ricardian equivalence) and the transversality condition for the GDP growth rate (i.e. the GDP growth rate has to be lower than the real interest rate). First, on the unbalanced panel of 21 countries from 1961 to 2010 available in OECD database, those two conditions were simultaneously validated only for 29% of the cases under examination. Second, those two conditions were more frequent in the 1980s and the 1990s following changes towards more restrictive monetary policies. Third, in tune with the Keynesian view, when the real interest rate is higher than the GDP growth, it corresponds to 75% of the cases of the increases of the debt/GDP ratio and to only 43% of the cases of the decreases of the debt/GDP ratio (fiscal consolidation).

Suggested Citation

  • Azizi, Karim & Canry, Nicolas & Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Tinel, Bruno, 2012. "Are no-Ponzi game and transversality conditions relevant for public debt?," European Journal of Economic and Social Systems, Lavoisier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 45-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ejessy:0018
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012. "The Failure Of Financial Macroeconomics And What To Do About It," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 80, pages 21-53, September.
    2. Sébastien Lechevalier & Pauline Debanes & Shin Wonkyu, 2016. "Financialization and industrial policies in Japan and Korea: Evolving complementarities and loss of institutional capabilities," Working Papers halshs-01431783, HAL.
    3. Lechevalier, Sébastien & Debanes, Pauline & Shin, Wonkyu, 2019. "Financialization and industrial policies in Japan and Korea: Evolving institutional complementarities and loss of state capabilities," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 69-85.
    4. Schilirò, Daniele, 2020. "COVID-19 crisis and the public debt issue:The case of Italy," MPRA Paper 103997, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2020.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    public debt solvency; no-Ponzi game condition; transversality condition; Keynesian countercyclical policy; monetary policy; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy

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