IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/ecoint/0984.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Dynamic Causal Relationship between Remittances, Fertility and Unemployment in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • MUSAKWA, MERCY TSITSI

    (Department of Economics, University of South Africa, Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract

In this study, the causal relationship between remittances, fertility and unemployment in South Africa is re-examined using annual data from 1990 to 2020. The study was motivated by the need to reconsider the nature of this relationship after a sharp increase in remittance inflows into the country. The findings from this study would inform fertility policies in South Africa. The question that this study seeks to answer is: Can remittances play a role in the lowering of fertility and unemployment levels in South Africa? Employing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration and the error correction model (ECM)-based causality model, the study found that there is a unidirectional causal flow from unemployment to fertility in the short run, and bidirectional causality between remittances and unemployment in both the short run and the long run. Bidirectional causality between fertility and remittances in the short run, and a unidirectional causal flow from fertility to remittances in the long run were also confirmed by the study. It can be concluded that South Africa may continue to formulate and implement policies that support remittance inflows in the battle against unemployment and high fertility rates. Policy implications are also discussed. Relazione dinamica causale tra rimesse, fertilità e disoccupazione in Sud Africa Questo studio effettua un riesame della relazione causale tra rimesse, fertilità e disoccupazione in Sud Africa, usando dati annuali relativi al periodo 1990-2020. Questa analisi è motivata dalla necessità di riconsiderare la natura di questa relazione dopo un notevole aumento delle rimesse nel paese. I risultati di questo studio sono utili per indirizzare le politiche sulla fertilità in Sud Africa. La domanda a cui si cerca di trovare risposta è: le rimesse possono avere un ruolo nella diminuzione della fertilità e della disoccupazione in Sud Africa? Tramite l’utilizzo di un approccio ARDL alla cointegrazione e del modello di causalità ECM, si è evidenziato che c’è causalità unidirezionale dalla disoccupazione alla fertilità nel breve periodo, e bidirezionale tra rimesse e disoccupazione sia nel breve che nel lungo periodo. I risultati confermano anche una causalità bidirezionale tra fertilità e rimesse nel breve periodo e unidirezionale dalla fertilità alle rimesse nel lungo periodo.Si può concludere che il Sud Africa può continuare a formulare ed implementare politiche a supporto dei flussi di rimesse nella sua battaglia contro la disoccupazione e gli alti tassi di fertilità. Si discutono anche le implicazioni di policy dei risultati ottenuti.

Suggested Citation

  • Musakwa, Mercy Tsitsi, 2024. "The Dynamic Causal Relationship between Remittances, Fertility and Unemployment in South Africa," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 77(4), pages 581-606.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0984
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.iei1946.it/article/pdf/download/1185/the-dynamic-causal-relationship-between-remittances-fertility-and-unemployment-in-south-africa
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    2. Shreya Pal & Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath & Gupteswar Patel & Mantu Kumar Mahalik, 2022. "The impact of remittance inflows on economic growth, unemployment and income inequality: An international evidence," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 211-235, February.
    3. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "Trivariate causality between economic growth, urbanisation and electricity consumption in Angola: Cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 876-884.
    4. Ayse Sevencan, 2023. "Remittances, unemployment, growth and development: a panel cointegration approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 663-668, March.
    5. Stark, Oded, 1981. "The Asset Demand for Children During Agricultural Modernization," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7(4), pages 671-675.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmed, Khalid, 2015. "The sheer scale of China’s urban renewal and CO2 emissions: Multiple structural breaks, long-run relationship and short-run dynamics," MPRA Paper 71035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Solomon P. Nathaniel & Festus V. Bekun, 2020. "Electricity Consumption, Urbanization and Economic Growth in Nigeria: New Insights from Combined Cointegration amidst Structural Breaks," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/013, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    4. Sheilla Nyasha & Yvonne Gwenhure & Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2018. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Ethiopia: A dynamic causal linkage," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(8), pages 1393-1412, December.
    5. Faisal Faisal & Ruqiya Pervaiz & Nesrin Ozatac & Turgut Tursoy, 2021. "Exploring the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, urbanisation and financial deepening for Turkey using the symmetric and asymmetric causality approaches," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(12), pages 17374-17402, December.
    6. Magombeyi, Mercy T & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2017. "FDI and poverty reduction in Botswana: A multivariate causality test," Working Papers 22656, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    7. Xie, Pinjie & Li, Han & Sun, Feihu & Tian, Huizhen, 2021. "Analysis of the dependence of economic growth on electric power input and its influencing factors in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    8. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Does Public Debt Impact Economic Growth in Zambia? An Ardl-Bounds Testing Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(4), pages 53-73, October-D.
    9. Musakwa, Mercy T & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Remittance and poverty nexus in Botswana: A multivariate approach," Working Papers 25749, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    10. Mercy. T. Musakwa & N. M. Odhiambo, 2020. "Remittance Inflows and Poverty Dynamics in South Africa: An Empirical Investigation," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, December.
    11. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Sbia, Rashid & Afza, Talat, 2015. "The effect of urbanization, affluence and trade openness on energy consumption: A time series analysis in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 683-693.
    12. Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Yuen Yee Yen, 2016. "A global analysis of the impact of research output on economic growth," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 108(2), pages 855-874, August.
    13. S. Nyasha & N.M. Odhiambo, 2022. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Zambia: A disaggregated approach," Journal of Economic Policy and Management Issues, JEPMI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-11.
    14. Nawaz, Saima & Iqbal, Nasir & Anwar, Saba, 2014. "Modelling electricity demand using the STAR (Smooth Transition Auto-Regressive) model in Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 535-542.
    15. Hanson, Daniel & Toru Delibasi, Tuba & Gatti, Matteo & Cohen, Shamai, 2022. "How do changes in economic activity affect air passenger traffic? The use of state-dependent income elasticities to improve aviation forecasts," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    16. Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2020. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Botswana: Empirical evidence from disaggregated data analysis," Working Papers 27659, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    17. Stéphane Mbiankeu Nguea & Issidor Noumba & Armand Gilbert Noula, 2020. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Contribute to Poverty Reduction in Cameroon? An ARDL-Bounds Testing Approach," Working Papers halshs-02570072, HAL.
    18. Sebastian Majewski & Urszula Mentel & Raufhon Salahodjaev & Marek Cierpiał-Wolan, 2022. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Asian Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-10, February.
    19. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Botswana: empirical evidence from a disaggregated data," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 3-24, January.
    20. Caraiani, Chirața & Lungu, Camelia I. & Dascălu, Cornelia, 2015. "Energy consumption and GDP causality: A three-step analysis for emerging European countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-210.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    South Africa; Fertility; Unemployment; Autoregressive Distributed Lag; Remittances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0984. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Angela Procopio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cacogit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.