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The Economics of Conflict and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific: RCEP, CPTPP and the US-China Trade War

Author

Listed:
  • Park, Cyn-Young

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Petri, Peter A.

    (Brandeis University)

  • Plummer, Michael G.

    (Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, signed in November 2020, comes shortly after the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) entered into force and the US-China Trade War escalated. We use a computable general equilibrium model to assess the long-term effects of these three developments on income, trade, economic structure, factor returns and employment across the world, and especially in Asia-Pacific countries. The results suggest that RCEP could generate income gains that will be almost twice as large as those of the CPTPP, and that the two agreements together will largely offset the substantial negative effects of the US-China Trade War for the world as a whole. All three policy developments, but especially RCEP, will deepen East Asian production networks and will raise productivity and increase wages and employment in much of East Asia. At the sectoral level, regional trade in non-durable and durable manufactures will experience the most growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Park, Cyn-Young & Petri, Peter A. & Plummer, Michael G., 2021. "The Economics of Conflict and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific: RCEP, CPTPP and the US-China Trade War," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 25(3), pages 233-272, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:eaerev:0397
    DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2021.25.3.397
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Nina & Wang, Yuqing & Yang, Shuwen & Lyu, Lixing & Gong, Kunyao & Huang, Xinyue & Huang, Siyi, 2024. "Structure characteristics and formation mechanism of the RCEP manufacturing trade network: An ERGM analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 635(C).
    2. Lijun Li, 2023. "Big data visualisation in regional comprehensive economic partnership: a systematic review," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Jongwanich, Juthathip & Kohpaiboon, Archanun, 2022. "The trade effect of non-tariff measures in a high-quality trade agreement," IDE Discussion Papers 871, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    4. TAKEDA Shiro & HIGASHIDA Keisaku & YOMOGIDA Morihiro, 2024. "Evaluation of the Impacts of Trade Restrictions between China and Japan," Discussion papers 24072, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Archana Srivastava & Somesh Kumar Mathur & Prabir De, 2023. "Ex-Ante Evaluation of India’s Trade Alliance with Indo-Pacific Region: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 58(2), pages 220-245, May.
    6. Xinxiong Wu & Chen Chen Yong & Su Teng Lee, 2022. "Addressing the COVID-19 Shock: The Potential Job Creation in China by the RCEP," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-15, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable General Equilibrium; Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership; Free Trade Agreement; Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership; Rules of Origin;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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