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U.S. Macro Policies and Global Economic Challenges

Author

Listed:
  • Aizenman, Joshua

    (University of Southern California)

  • Ito, Hiro

    (Portland State University)

Abstract

This paper overviews different exit strategies for the U.S. from the debt-overhang, and analyses their implications for emerging markets and global stability. These strategies are discussed in the context of the debates about secular-stagnation versus debt-overhang, the fiscal theory of the price level, the size of fiscal multipliers, prospects for a multipolar currency system, and historical case studies. We conclude that the reallocation of U.S. fiscal efforts towards infrastructure investment aiming at boosting growth, followed by a gradual tax increase, aiming at reaching a modest primary fiscal surplus over time are akin to an upfront investment in greater long-term global stability. Such a trajectory may solidify the viability and credibility of the U.S. dollar as a global anchor, thereby stabilizing Emerging Markets economies and global growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2020. "U.S. Macro Policies and Global Economic Challenges," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 24(4), pages 469-495, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:eaerev:0388
    DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2020.24.4.388
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    Keywords

    Debt Overhang; Emerging Markets; Macro Policies; Secular Stagnation; Global Currencies; Global Stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements

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