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Regional Business Cycles in East Asia: Synchronization and its Determinants

Author

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  • Park, Young-Joon

    (Ajou University)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamics and nature of regional business cycle synchronization for East Asian countries in the period of 2000:Q1-2011:Q4. Estimating a dynamic two-factor model extracts the common factor and the nation- specific factor from both the macroeconomic aggregates and plausible driving forces of regional business cycles. Evidence for regional business cycle synchronization is particularly strong for Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines, while Japan shows weak evidence of regional synchronization. On the other hand, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and China are decoupling from regional business cycles. The driver of monetary aggregate is the most significant determinant of regional fluctuations of macroeconomic aggregates, whereas oil price and productivity are on average important driving forces of nation-specific fluctuations of real economic activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Park, Young-Joon, 2013. "Regional Business Cycles in East Asia: Synchronization and its Determinants," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 17(2), pages 103-128, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:eaerev:0057
    DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2013.17.2.261
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    Cited by:

    1. Masahito Ambashi & Fusanori Iwasaki & Keita Oikawa, 2021. "Prediction Errors of Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Shocks for ASEAN Member States," Working Papers DP-2022-02, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    2. Masahito Ambashi & Fusanori Iwasaki & Keita Oikawa, 2022. "Prediction Errors of Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Shocks for ASEAN Member States, 1990-2021," KIER Working Papers 1088, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    3. Kiryoung LEE & Chanik JO, 2018. "Forecasting Chinese Business Cycle Using Long-term Interest Rate Comovements," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 118-134, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle; Synchronization; Decoupling; East Asia; Factor Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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