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Sustainability of Social Security Policies in Turkey: Cointegration Analysis with Multiple Structural Breaks

Author

Listed:
  • Tatlı, Halim

    (Bingol University)

  • Göçer, İsmet

    (Adnan Menderes University)

Abstract

In this study, sustainability of social security policies in Turkey was analyzed by using 1989-2013 period annual data and 2007:M01-2014:M05 monthly data from by means of unit root test with multiple structural breaks of Carrion-i-Silvestre (2009) and cointegration test with multiple structural breaks of Maki (2012) and it was determined that there is a cointegration relationship between the series. Long-term cointegration coefficients were estimated by FMOLS and it was found that social security policies are sustainable in the weak form in Turkey. It was found that around 70% within 1989-2013 period and around 78% within 2007-2014 period of social security expenditures were met by income of social security institute. It was seen that sustainability of social security system has slightly improved in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatlı, Halim & Göçer, İsmet, 2015. "Sustainability of Social Security Policies in Turkey: Cointegration Analysis with Multiple Structural Breaks," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 6(3), pages 87-111, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:buecrj:0195
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social security system; sustainability; multiple structural break analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • P23 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Factor and Product Markets; Industry Studies; Population

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