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An Empirical Analysis of the Relations among Consumer Expenditures, Consumption Credits and Consumer Confidence in Turkish Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Arısoy, İbrahim

    (Cukurova University)

  • Aytun, Cengiz

    (Cukurova University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship among consumer credits, interest rates, consumer confidence and consumption expenditures in Turkey by using the Toda-Yamamoto (1992) Granger-causality approach and regression analysis over the period 2005:1-2012:8. The empirical results based on the causality test show that consumer confidence, interest rate and consumer credits play an important role in explaining and predicting household consumption expenditures. Furthermore, the ordinary regression results reveal that there are statistically significant positive relations among consumer confidence, consumer credits and household consumption expenditures in the Turkish economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Arısoy, İbrahim & Aytun, Cengiz, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relations among Consumer Expenditures, Consumption Credits and Consumer Confidence in Turkish Economy," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 5(2), pages 33-45, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:buecrj:0149
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer confidence index; consumption expenditures; consumption credits; granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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