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Assessing the Existence of the J?Cure Effect in Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Khatoon, Rabeya

    (Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka)

  • Rahman, Mohammad Mahbubur

    (Graduate Student, Manchester University, UK)

Abstract

This paper estimates the short run and long run impact of depreciation of Taka on trade balance in Bangladesh using cointegration techniques. The results support a positive influence of devaluation on trade balance both in the short and long run. The causal relationship between real exchange rate and trade balance is not robust, while the Granger test suggests a bidirectional causal relationship between devaluation and trade balance. The Sims test does not support the hypothesis that trade balance has influence on real exchange rate. On average, the declining segment of the ‘J-curve effect’ has not been evidenced for Bangladesh

Suggested Citation

  • Khatoon, Rabeya & Rahman, Mohammad Mahbubur, 2009. "Assessing the Existence of the J?Cure Effect in Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 32(2), pages 79-100, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:badest:0481
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    2. Bewley, R. A., 1979. "The direct estimation of the equilibrium response in a linear dynamic model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 357-361.
    3. Anisul Islam & M. Kabir Hassan, 2004. "An econometric estimation of the aggregate import demand function for Bangladesh: some further results," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(9), pages 575-580.
    4. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    5. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    7. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    8. Hall, S G, 1986. "An Application of the Granger & Engle Two-Step Estimation Procedure to United Kingdom Aggregate Wage Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 229-239, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Homamul Islam, 2021. "Evaluating the Persistence of j Curve Phenomenon in the Bilateral Trade between Bangladesh and USA: The ARDL Bounds Testing Approach and Granger Causality Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 7(2), pages 74-81, 06-2021.
    2. Rabeya Khatoon & Md Emran Hasan & Md Wahid Ferdous Ibon & Shahidul Islam & Jeenat Mehareen & Rubaiya Murshed & Md Nahid Ferdous Pabon & Md. Jillur Rahman & Musharrat Shabnam Shuchi, 2022. "Aggregation, asymmetry, and common factors for Bangladesh’s exchange rate–trade balance relation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2739-2770, June.
    3. Mustafizur Rahman & Towfiqul Islam Khan, 2018. "BREXIT and Bangladesh: An Exploratory Study on Likely Economic Implications," CPD Working Paper 121, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Existence of the J; Cure Effect; Bangladesh;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General

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