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Measuring the impact of economic sanctions on the Russian economy using the synthetic control group method

Author

Listed:
  • Frants, Marina

    (Institute of Social and Economic Researches of the Ufa Federal Scientific Centre of Russian Academy of Sciences, Ufa, Russian Federation;)

Abstract

The research deals with the synthetic control group method application to assess the causal effect of economic sanctions on the Russian economy. The analysis of SCG method assumptions to the problem allowed us to establish that the most problematic issue is comparison group formation. We use the source data from the World Development Indicators database. GDP by PPP per capita was an outcome variable. The application of the method to assessing the impact of sanctions pressure shows that it is possible to select the weights in such a way as to ensure good closeness of the indicators of real and synthetic Russia in the pre-event period. Such states as Kazakhstan, Argentina, Brazil, and the USA were most in demand for the formation of a synthetic Russia, . However, the estimates are unstable to changes in the set of countries used to form the synthetic control.

Suggested Citation

  • Frants, Marina, 2024. "Measuring the impact of economic sanctions on the Russian economy using the synthetic control group method," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 74, pages 104-123.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0499
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic sanctions; synthetic control group method; uniformity principle; no interference principle.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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