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Asymmetric Uncertainty Around Earnings Announcements: Evidence from Options Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Saurav, Sumit

    (Indian Institute of Management Bangalore, Karnataka, India)

  • Agarwalla, Sobhesh Kumar

    (Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India)

  • Varma, Jayanth R.

    (Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India)

Abstract

We use the Indian stock options market to study the evolution of uncertainty and asymmetric uncertainty around earnings announcements (EAs). We find that uncertainty (implied volatility) and asymmetric uncertainty (options skew) increase monotonically before the EA day and decrease after EA. Options volume (relative to spot and to futures) also exhibits similar behavior, suggesting that informed investors prefer options markets to spot and futures markets. Both options skew and put-to-call volume ratio can predict the sign of the EA surprise one day before EA, indicating that price discovery and information assimilation happen in the options market.

Suggested Citation

  • Saurav, Sumit & Agarwalla, Sobhesh Kumar & Varma, Jayanth R., 2024. "Asymmetric Uncertainty Around Earnings Announcements: Evidence from Options Markets," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 27(2), pages 459-487, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ambsrv:0111
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    File URL: https://digitalcommons.newhaven.edu/americanbusinessreview/vol27/iss2/4/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings Announcements; Volatility Smile; Earnings Surprise; Options Volume; Emerging Markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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