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Évaluation et analyse du potentiel commercial dans la communauté économique et monétaire de l’Afrique centrale (CEMAC)

Author

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  • Avom, Désiré

    (Université de Yaoundé II-Soa, Cameroun)

  • Mignamissi, Dieudonné

    (Université de Yaoundé II-Cameroun)

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate and analyze trade potential of Monetary and Economic Community of Central Africa’s countries (MECCA) in the light of market integration theory. Gradually, we analyze stylized facts of member’s countries trade and estimate an augmented gravity model to evaluate the bilateral trade patterns in the subregion. The results obtained are used to compute the trade potential index in the community. The study found four major results: (i) the stylized facts show heterogeneity and a low level of integration in the subregion; (ii) the coefficients of the traditional variables of the gravity model globally keep their theoretical signs; (iii) the poor level of GDP per capita and the lack of diversification of productive structures are the main factors reducing trade potential in the sub-region; (iv) even though weak, there is some trade creation episodes, notably in the bilateral flows of Cameroon and others member’s countries. Résumé – L’objectif de cet article est d’évaluer et d’analyser le potentiel commercial des pays de la CEMAC selon l’approche de l’intégration économique par le marché. Pour y parvenir, nous adoptons une démarche en plusieurs étapes. Après une analyse des faits stylisés, un modèle de gravité est appliqué et estimé selon plusieurs variantes pour évaluer les déterminants des échanges commerciaux. Les résultats obtenus sont ensuite utilisés pour le calcul du potentiel commercial communautaire. Nous parvenons aux principaux résultats suivants : (i) les faits stylisés montrent que les pays de la CEMAC sont faiblement intégrés commercialement, extravertis et hétérogènes; (ii) les coefficients des variables traditionnelles du modèle de gravité sont globalement de signes attendus; (iii) le faible niveau de revenu par habitant et surtout la faible diversification productive réduisent fortement le potentiel commercial dans la sous-région; (iv) des épisodes de création d’échanges, quoiqu’à un niveau faible, apparaissent, notamment dans les flux bilatéraux du Cameroun avec les autres États membres.

Suggested Citation

  • Avom, Désiré & Mignamissi, Dieudonné, 2013. "Évaluation et analyse du potentiel commercial dans la communauté économique et monétaire de l’Afrique centrale (CEMAC)," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(2), pages 115-145, Juin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0087
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