IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rfh/bbejor/v13y2024i3p156-164.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demystifying Financial Speculation in Commodity Future Markets of Emerging Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Khushnoor Khan

    (Department of Business Management, MY University Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan)

  • Daniyal Ejaz

    (Department of Business Management, MY University Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan)

Abstract

Present study focuses on comparing financial speculation on commodity future markets of China and India. Two agricultural products and two metal products were chosen from both countries for the present study. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset spanning over twenty years, we employ quantitative methods to measure the hedging and speculative ratios within Chinese and Indian commodity future markets. Relevant results and visual representations were extracted using EVIEWS. Outcome of the study demonstrated that Indian commodity future markets are more speculative than Chinese commodity future markets both in cases of agricultural and metal products. The results will provide valuable implications for policymakers and market participants aiming to compare financial speculation in commodity markets vis-Ã -vis emerging economies like China and India. Additionally, the outcomes of this study are particularly relevant for market players, and policymakers to comprehend the mind-set/behavioural pattern of investors trading in Chinese and Indian commodity future markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Khushnoor Khan & Daniyal Ejaz, 2024. "Demystifying Financial Speculation in Commodity Future Markets of Emerging Economies," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(3), pages 156-164.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfh:bbejor:v:13:y:2024:i:3:p:156-164
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.61506/01.00460
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bbejournal.com/BBE/article/view/910/1041
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://bbejournal.com/BBE/article/view/910
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.61506/01.00460?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009. "Devil or Angel? The Role of Speculation in the Recent Commodity Price Boom (and Bust)," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(2), August.
    2. Manogna RL & Aswini Kumar Mishra, 2021. "Financialization of Indian agricultural commodities: the case of index investments," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(1), pages 73-96, September.
    3. Palao, Fernando & Pardo, Angel, 2012. "Assessing price clustering in European Carbon Markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 51-56.
    4. Wenjin Kang & K. Geert Rouwenhorst & Ke Tang, 2020. "A Tale of Two Premiums: The Role of Hedgers and Speculators in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 377-417, February.
    5. Lucia, Julio J. & Mansanet-Bataller, Maria & Pardo, Ángel, 2015. "Speculative and hedging activities in the European carbon market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 342-351.
    6. Bianchi, Robert J. & Fan, John Hua & Zhang, Tingxi, 2021. "Investable commodity premia in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. Abby Kim, 2015. "Does Futures Speculation Destabilize Commodity Markets?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(8), pages 696-714, August.
    8. Peck, Anne E., 1982. "Estimation of Hedging and Speculative Positions in Futures Markets Revisited," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 1-16.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin T. Bohl & Pierre L. Siklos & Claudia Wellenreuther, 2018. "Speculative activity and returns volatility of Chinese major agricultural commodity futures," CAMA Working Papers 2018-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L. & Wellenreuther, Claudia, 2018. "Speculative activity and returns volatility of Chinese agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 69-91.
    3. Fan, John Hua & Mo, Di & Zhang, Tingxi, 2022. "The “necessary evil” in Chinese commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    4. Czudaj Robert L., 2020. "The role of uncertainty on agricultural futures markets momentum trading and volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(3), pages 1-39, June.
    5. Jian Li & Jean‐Paul Chavas, 2023. "A dynamic analysis of the distribution of commodity futures and spot prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(1), pages 122-143, January.
    6. Ludwig, Michael, 2019. "Speculation and its impact on liquidity in commodity markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 532-547.
    7. Boyd, Naomi E. & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Li, Bingxin, 2018. "An update on speculation and financialization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 91-104.
    8. Lai, Ya-Wen & Lin, Chiou-Fa & Tang, Mei-Ling, 2017. "Mispricing and trader positions in the S&P 500 index futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 250-265.
    9. Libo Yin & Qingyuan Yang & Zhi Su, 2017. "Predictability of structural co-movement in commodity prices: the role of technical indicators," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 795-812, May.
    10. Hossfeld, Oliver & Röthig, Andreas, 2016. "Do speculative traders anticipate or follow USD/EUR exchange rate movements? New evidence on the efficiency of the EUR currency futures market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 218-225.
    11. John Hua Fan & Tingxi Zhang, 2024. "Commodity premia and risk management," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(7), pages 1097-1116, July.
    12. Dimpfl, Thomas & Flad, Michael & Jung, Robert C., 2017. "Price discovery in agricultural commodity markets in the presence of futures speculation," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 50-62.
    13. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2024. "On the transmission mechanism between the inventory arbitrage activity, speculative activity and the commodity price under the US QE policy: Evidence from a TVP-VAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1054-1072.
    14. Fan, John Hua & Qiao, Xiao, 2023. "Commodity momentum: A tale of countries and sectors," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    15. Friedrich, Marina & Mauer, Eva-Maria & Pahle, Michael & Tietjen, Oliver, 2020. "From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS," EconStor Preprints 196150, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    16. Tan, Xue-Ping & Wang, Xin-Yu, 2017. "Dependence changes between the carbon price and its fundamentals: A quantile regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 306-325.
    17. Adjemian, Michael K. & Bruno, Valentina & Robe, Michel A. & Wallen, Jonathan, 2017. "What Drives Volatility Expectations in Grain and Oilseed Markets?," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258452, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Bohl, Martin T. & Pütz, Alexander & Sulewski, Christoph, 2021. "Speculation and the informational efficiency of commodity futures markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    19. Go, You-How & Lau, Wee-Yeap, 2017. "Investor demand, market efficiency and spot-futures relation: Further evidence from crude palm oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 135-146.
    20. Dirk G. Baur & Lee A. Smales, 2022. "Trading behavior in bitcoin futures: Following the “smart money”," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1304-1323, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfh:bbejor:v:13:y:2024:i:3:p:156-164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Muhammad Irfan Chani (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rffhlpk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.