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Real estate boom and export performance bust in Croatia

Author

Listed:
  • Marina Tkalec

    (Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Maruska Vizek

    (Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

The goal of this research is to estimate the effect of resource eallocation from the manufacturing to the real estate economic sector on exporting activity in Croatia, a small open post-transition country that experienced a real estate boom during the previous decade. This paper follows the work by Égert and Kierzenkowski (2014) as we test the hypothesis that the real estate boom had an adverse impact on country’s export performance. For that purpose we use quarterly data ranging from 1Q1998 to 3Q2013, and estimate export equations using maximum likelihood and dynamic ordinary least squares estimators of cointegration. Our results indicate that the distortion of relative prices in favor of non-tradable sectors (construction and real estate), which is a direct by-product of the real estate boom, has had stifling effects on export performance. Our results also suggest that ailing cost competitiveness and governments’ inability to implement policies promoting private sector economic development adversely influenced export performance during the period analyzed. The basic conclusion of our research is that the expansion of a non-tradable sector in a country with limited supply of production factors can have a detrimental effect on the ability of the tradable sector to increase its output and compete in international markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Tkalec & Maruska Vizek, 2014. "Real estate boom and export performance bust in Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 32(1), pages 11-34.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfe:zbefri:v:32:y:2014:i:1:p:11-34
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Petra Posedel & Maruška Vizek, 2011. "Are House Prices Characterized by Threshold Effects? Evidence from Developed and Post-Transition Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(6), pages 584-600, December.
    2. Neil Foster-McGregor & Mario Holzner & Michael Landesmann & Johannes Pöschl & Robert Stehrer & Roman Stöllinger, 2013. "A ‘Manufacturing Imperative’ in the EU – Europe's Position in Global Manufacturing and the Role of Industrial Policy," wiiw Research Reports 391, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    3. Balázs Égert & Rafaƚ Kierzenkowski, 2014. "Exports and Property Prices in France: Are They Connected?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 387-409, March.
    4. Matthieu Bussière & Jarko Fidrmuc & Bernd Schnatz, 2005. "Trade Integration of Central and Eastern European Countries: Lessons from a Gravity Model," Working Papers 105, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    5. Leon Podkaminer, 2013. "Development Patterns of Central and East European Countries (in the course of transition and following EU accession)," wiiw Research Reports 388, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. Marina Tkalec & Maruška Vizek, 2011. "Purchasing Power Parity in a Transition Country: The Case of Croatia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(2), pages 223-238, June.
    7. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1992. "Estimation and Testing of Cointegrated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, March.
    8. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jelena Trivic & £ukasz Klimczak, 2015. "The determinants of intra-regional trade in the Western Balkans," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 33(1), pages 37-66.
    2. Nebojsa Stojcic & Djuro Benic & Petra Karanikic, 2014. "Regional determinants of export competitiveness in Croatian manufacturing industry," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 32(2), pages 193-212.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    competitiveness; exports; manufacturing; real estate; resource allocation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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