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Loss given default determinants in a commercial bank lending: an emerging market case study

Author

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  • Marko Kosak

    (University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics, Ljubljana, Slovenia)

  • Jure Poljsak

    (Abanka Vipa d.d., Ljubljana, Slovenia)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the loss given default (LGD) determinants in case of a typical loan portfolio consisting of SME loans in a commercial bank operating in one of the quickly developing banking markets, i.e. in Slovenia. Accurate LGD estimates of defaulted bank claims are important for provisioning reserves for credit losses, calculating adequate risk capital and determining fair pricing risky bank loans. While most of the empirical literature in the field concentrates on corporate bond markets to estimate losses in the event of default, we use a unique individual bank data set on SME loan losses. Due to the proprietary nature of data only few studies of this kind have been published so far and to our knowledge none of them covers the Eastern European banking markets. In the first stage of the analysis we estimate the LGD variable by applying the discounted cash flow approach, while in the second stage we analyse its determinants by using the ordinal regression analysis. Our findings suggest that reliable LGD estimates can be produced by discounting expected loan related future cash flows and that explanatory factors, such as type of collateral, type of industrial sector, last available loan rating, size of the debt and loan maturity satisfactorily explicate variability of the LGD variable in the specific banking market. All the results are not only relevant to the impairment policy determination and capital adequacy calculation in the specific bank, but also to the evaluation of SME loans characteristics in developing markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Marko Kosak & Jure Poljsak, 2010. "Loss given default determinants in a commercial bank lending: an emerging market case study," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 28(1), pages 61-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfe:zbefri:v:28:y:2010:i:1:p:61-88
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dermine, J. & de Carvalho, C. Neto, 2006. "Bank loan losses-given-default: A case study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1219-1243, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Natalia Nehrebecka, 2019. "Bank loans recovery rate in commercial banks: A case study of non-financial corporations," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(1), pages 139-172.
    2. Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska & Paweł Kopciuszewski, 2024. "Credit loss modelling using beta distribution in a Bayesian approach," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 55(3), pages 313-332.
    3. Gargi Sanati & Anup Kumar Bhandari, 2024. "Dynamics of Operational Efficiency in Credit Lending and Recovery of Stressed Assets: An Alternative Approach with Undesirable By-Products," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(2), pages 365-394, June.
    4. Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska & Paweł Kopciuszewski, 2023. "Application of the Bayesian approach in loss given default modelling," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(6), pages 625-650.
    5. Abu, Benjamin Musah & Domanban, Paul Bata & Haruna, Issahaku, 2017. "Microcredit Loan Repayment Default among Small Scale Enterprises: A Double Hurdle Approach," MPRA Paper 101576, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Mar 2017.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank; SME loans; loss-given-default (LGD);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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