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The Effects on Investment Behavior of Zero Interest Rate Policy¡ªEvidence From a Roulette Experiment

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  • Christian A. Conrad

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of interest rate cuts on investment behavior. The methodology is to simulate investment decision making under different capital costs. The experiment showed that decreasing interest rates encourage risk-taking. With the decreased interest rate as borrowing costs the risk taking increased weakly but continuously. The risk taking increased strongly when the interest rate reached zero. Thus the experiment showed excessive risk-taking when there were no capital costs. This finding supports the hypothesis that extreme expansive monetary policy with low, zero or negative interest rates encourage financial bubbles and overinvestments or wrong investments in the real economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian A. Conrad, 2019. "The Effects on Investment Behavior of Zero Interest Rate Policy¡ªEvidence From a Roulette Experiment," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(4), pages 18-27, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:6:y:2019:i:4:p:18-27
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Laeven, Luc & Marquez, Robert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Leverage, and Bank Risk-Taking," Working Papers 11-05, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    2. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Marco E Terrones, 2013. "Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 119-166.
    3. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    4. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    5. Arteta,Carlos & Kose,Ayhan & Stocker,Marc & Taskin,Temel, 2016. "Negative interest rate policies : sources and implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7791, The World Bank.
    6. Katrin Assenmacher & Signe Krogstrup, 2018. "Monetary Policy with Negative Interest Rates: Decoupling Cash from Electronic Money," IMF Working Papers 2018/191, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2016. "Quantitative Easing: An Underappreciated Success," Policy Briefs PB16-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian A. Conrad, 2021. "The Effects of Money Supply and Interest Rates on Stock Prices, Evidence from Two Behavioral Experiments," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 33-41, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    quantitative easing; anticyclical monetary policy; monetary business cycles; financial crisis policy; zero interest rate policy; experimental simulation with roulette;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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